Voter Backlash and Elite Misperception
The Logic of Violence in Electoral Competition

Explores the causes and effects of election-related violence, analyzing why politicians employ violence and how their electorate responds.

Steven C. Rosenzweig (Author)

9781009354882, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 1 June 2023

222 pages
23.5 x 15.8 x 1.9 cm, 0.47 kg

'Rosenzweig's contribution to theory is novel and important … His empirical strategy is rich, detailed, and multifaceted, demonstrating the best of contemporary comparative politics that combines deep case knowledge, microlevel data collection, and careful attention to inference with clearly delimited scope conditions and attention to broader implications. With its careful attention to detailed technical matters while achieving readability and clarity, [the book] is also a masterclass for PhD students wanting to learn how to successfully turn dissertations into first books. I highly recommend this book to students and scholars of contemporary democratic politics.' James D. Long, Perspectives on Politics

Existing theories of election-related violence often assume that if elites instigate violence, they must benefit electorally from doing so. With a focus on Kenya, this book employs a wide array of data and empirical methods to demonstrate that - contrary to conventional wisdom - violence can be a costly strategy resulting in significant voter backlash. The book argues that politicians often fail to perceive these costs and thus employ violence as an electoral tactic even when its efficacy is doubtful. Election-related violence can therefore be explained not solely by the electoral benefits it provides, but by politicians' misperceptions about its effectiveness as an electoral tactic. The book also shows that violence in founding elections - the first elections held under a new multiparty regime - has long-lasting effects on politicians (mis)perceptions about its usefulness, explaining why some countries' elections suffer from recurrent bouts of violence while others do not.

1. Introduction
2. Election-Related Violence in Kenya and Around the World
3. Theorizing Election-Related Violence: Toward a Theory of Elite Misperception
4 Violence and Election Outcomes
5. How Violence Affects Voting: Coercion, Persuasion, and Backlash
6. Elite Misperception and Election-Related Violence
7. Voter Backlash, Elite Misperception, and Violence Beyond Kenya
8. Conclusion.

Subject Areas: Comparative politics [JPB]