Thinking and Deciding

A thorough introduction to the basic principles of judgments and decisions, emphasizing explanations over simple review of facts.

Jonathan Baron (Author)

9781009263641, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 10 August 2023

550 pages
22.9 x 15.2 x 2.8 cm, 0.783 kg

'For 35 years, Thinking and Deciding has set the intellectual and pedagogical standard for presenting a field that has grown dramatically in importance since the first edition. The new edition maintains these high standards. It is thorough, thoughtful, insightful, clear, and comprehensive. It does not shy away from discussing important issues about which there is disagreement. I cannot imagine a better way to educate students - and their teachers - than to have them read this book.' Barry Schwartz, University of California, Berkeley, USA

The fifth edition of the classic text Thinking and Deciding updates the broad overview of the field of judgments and decisions offered in previous editions. It covers the normative standards used to evaluate conclusions, such as logic, probability, and various forms of utility theory. It explains descriptive accounts of departures from these standards, largely in terms of principles of cognitive psychology, emphasizing the distinction between search processes and inferences. Chapters cover decisions under risk, decision analysis, moral decisions and social dilemmas, and decisions about the future. Although the book assumes no particular prerequisites beyond introductory high-school algebra, it is most suited to advanced undergraduates, early graduate students, and active researchers in related fields, such as business, politics, law, medicine, economics, and philosophy.

Preface
Part I. Thinking in General: 1. What is thinking?
2. The study of thinking
3. Rationality
4. Logic
Part II. Probability and Belief: 5. Normative theory of probability
6. Descriptive theory of probability judgment
7. Hypothesis testing
8. Judgment of correlation and contingency
9. Actively open-minded thinking (AOT)
Part III. Decisions and Plans: 10. Choice under uncertainty: normative theory
11. Choice under uncertainty: descriptive theory
12. Risk
13. Choice under certainty
14. Utility measurement
15. Decision analysis and values
16. Quantitative judgment
17. Moral judgment and choice
18. Fairness and justice
19. Social dilemmas: cooperation v. defection
20. Decisions about the future
Index.

Subject Areas: Cognition & cognitive psychology [JMR]