The Volatility Curse
Exogenous Shocks and Representation in Resource-Rich Democracies

Economic voting is common around the world, but in many developing countries economic performance is dependent on exogenous international factors.

Daniela Campello (Author), Cesar Zucco (Author)

9781108795357, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 5 November 2020

300 pages
15 x 23 x 1.5 cm, 0.43 kg

'Like the best books, The Volatility Curse offers new insight into the political economy of elections while also raising novel questions for future work. Its findings speak most directly to those interested in the political economy of Latin America …' Noam Lupu, Perspectives on Politics

The Volatility Curse examines the conditions under which economic voting can (and cannot) function as a mechanism of democratic accountability, challenging existing theories that are largely based on experiences in developed democracies. Drawing on cross-national data from around the world and micro-level evidence from Latin America, Daniela Campello and Cesar Zucco make two broad, related arguments. First, they show that economic voting is pervasive around the world, but in economically volatile developing democracies that are dependent on commodity exports and inflows of foreign capital, economic outcomes are highly contingent on conditions beyond government control, which nonetheless determine relevant political outcomes like elections, popular support, and government transitions. Second, politicians are aware of these misattribution patterns and are often able to anticipate their electoral prospects well before elections. This reduces incumbents' incentives to maximize voter welfare, as anticipated by economic voting theories, and increases the likelihood of shirking, waste, and corruption.

1. Introduction: representation in volatile economies
2. Economic vote, exogenous shocks, and representation
3. Can economic vote promote representation?
4. International factors and economic performance in Latin America
5. International factors and presidential elections
6. International factors and popular support
7. Understanding misattribution of responsibility
8. Misattribution and incumbent behavior
9. Conclusion: pathways to better representation
References
Index.

Subject Areas: Political economy [KCP], International relations [JPS], Comparative politics [JPB], Hispanic & Latino studies [JFSL4]