The Prediction of Communist Economic Performance

This study represents attempts dating from 1967, by nine experts on Communist economics, to forecast the performance of individual Communist countries.

P. J. D. Wiles (Author)

9780521074070, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 28 August 2008

404 pages
23.5 x 15.8 x 2.3 cm, 0.51 kg

This study represents attempts dating from 1967, by nine experts on Communist economics, to forecast the performance of individual Communist countries. These predictions provide a great deal of comparable information and make experimental use of elementary econometrical techniques, which have rarely been applied to these countries before. The book also contains, as a unique feature, criticism and self-criticism of the predictions of 1967 (here reproduced unchanged) in the light of subsequent events. A most valuable by-product is the analytical comparison of planning procedures and of agricultural ownership, country by country, so that the differing progress of the reforms can be easily grasped.

1. Introduction, Peter Wiles, 1970
2. The planning of industry: comparative analysis, ed. Peter Wiles, 1969
3. Ownership and planning in Soviet and East European agriculture, Everett M. Jacobs, 1969
4. General note on projections for Albania and Rumania, Michael Kaser, 1967
5. Albania, Michael Kaser, 1967
6. Albania: afterthoughts, Michael Kaser, 1969
7. Bulgaria, Alexej Wynnyczuk, 1968
8. China, W. Klatt, 1967
9. China one year later, Peter Wiles, 1968
10. China's economy after the Cultural Revolution, W. Klatt, 1969
11. Czechoslovakia, Boris Pesek, 1967
12. Czechoslovakia, Boris Pesek, 1968
13. East Germany, Horst Seidler, 1967
14. Critical remarks on forecasts of the economy of the German Democratic Republic in 1967 and 1971, Gert Leptin, 1968
15. Hungary: perspectives up to 1970, Alan A. Brown, 1967
16. The Hungarian economy 1966-70, R. D. Portes, 1968
17. Poland, Michael Gamarnikow, 1967
18. Poland, Bogdan Mieczkowski, 1968
19. Poland and Czechoslovakia: the pitfalls of Economic prophecy in the Communist world, Michael Gamarnikow, 1969
20. Rumania, Michael Kaser, 1967
21. Rumania: afterthoughts, Michael Kaser, 1969
22. Soviet industry, Francis Seton, 1967
23. The Soviet economy in 1967: forecasts and reality, Francis Seton, 1968
24. Soviet agriculture, W. Klatt, 1967
25. Soviet farm output and food supply at the end of the eighth Five-Year Plan, W. Klatt, 1970
26. Is the Soviet agricultural plan for 1966-70 reasonable? Peter Wiles, 1967
27. An econometric analysis and forecast of Soviet economic growth, Haruki Niwa, 1967.

Subject Areas: General & world history [HBG]