The Importance of Campaign Promises

How do campaign promises affect voter behavior? This study shows how promises polarize voter reactions to candidates who make them.

Tabitha Bonilla (Author)

9781108843331, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 3 February 2022

200 pages
23.6 x 15.9 x 1.7 cm, 0.5 kg

'Bonilla examines one of the oldest questions about democratic representation and accountability: what are we to make of candidates' promises? Her careful and thorough study finds that presidential candidates understand that promising something in a given issue area is an important commitment. She also finds that voters are often more negative towards candidates that promise something on an issue because it indicates inflexibility. This work extends our knowledge of how candidate behavior affects democratic processes and voting behavior. It is a substantial contribution.' Daron Shaw, The University of Texas at Austin

Campaign promises are a cornerstone of representative democracy. Candidates make promises to signal to voters their intentions in office and voters evaluate candidates based on those promises. This study unpacks the theorized pathway regarding campaign promises: not whether promises are kept, but what purpose promises serve, what they signal, and how they affect voter decision-making. The author explores the pathways and conditions influencing promises and finds that promises tend to have a polarizing effect on voters' opinions of politicians, attracting similarly-positioned voters and strongly repelling voters who disagree with a candidate's position. In addition, voters perceive promise breakers as less honest and less likely to follow through than candidates who more weakly took the same position. With a wealth of data and fascinating case studies, this book is full of important insights into electoral psychology and the study of promises, campaigning, and representation.

Part I. Why and How Promises Matter: 1. A closer look at campaign promises
2. Promises as signals of commitment
Part II. Promises As a Special Type of Position-Taking: 3. Campaign promises from 1960-2012
4. Voter perceptions of promises
Part III. The Effect of Promises on Voter Behavior: 5. How promises polarize voters
6. Further testing the effects promises
7. Promising in retrospect
8. Promises in 2016 and beyond
Bibliography.

Subject Areas: Political campaigning & advertising [JPVL], Research methods: general [GPS]