The Governance Cycle in Parliamentary Democracies
A Computational Social Science Approach

This book provides tractable computational analyses of the crucial but complex processes of government formation and survival.

Scott de Marchi (Author), Michael Laver (Author)

9781009315487, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 9 February 2023

200 pages
22.8 x 15.2 x 1.3 cm, 0.35 kg

'In this foundational contribution to computational social science, de Marchi and Laver transform institutional analysis. Most important, they privilege realism by constructing and analyzing a far more descriptively accurate model of government formation processes than exists in the formal literature. That realism precludes the derivation of optimal strategies creating an opportunity for the authors to make plausible assumptions about party behavior. Their double pivot - toward institutional realism and away from full rationality - produces a compelling model with strong empirical support that will provide a template for future scholars.' Scott Page, University of Michigan

Parliamentary democracy involves a never-ending cycle of elections, government formations, and the need for governments to survive in potentially hostile environments. These conditions require members of any government to make decisions on a large number of issues, some of which sharply divide them. Officials resolve these divisions by 'logrolling'– conceding on issues they care less about, in exchange for reciprocal concessions on issues to which they attach more importance. Though realistically modeling this 'governance cycle' is beyond the scope of traditional formal analysis, this book attacks the problem computationally in two ways. Firstly, it models the behavior of “functionally rational” senior politicians who use informal decision heuristics to navigate their complex high stakes setting. Secondly, by applying computational methods to traditional game theory, it uses artificial intelligence to model how hyper-rational politicians might find strategies that are close to optimal.

Introduction
1. Governance, complexity, computation and rationality
2. The governance cycle
3. Agent based model of government formation and survival
4. Artificial intelligence and government formation
5. Analyzing models of government formation and survival
6. The empirics of government formation and survival
7. Conclusions and aspirations
Appendices.

Subject Areas: Ethical & social aspects of IT [UBJ], Political economy [KCP], Comparative politics [JPB], Research methods: general [GPS]