The Economy and the Vote
Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries

This book estimates he effects of economic conditions on the behaviour of individual voters and on election outcomes.

Wouter van der Brug (Author), Cees van der EijK (Author), Mark Franklin (Author)

9780521682336, Cambridge University Press

Paperback, published 30 April 2007

246 pages, 36 tables
22.9 x 15 x 1.5 cm, 0.32 kg

"One of the important contributions of this book is a recasting of economic voting theories in a more comprehensive two-stage model of voting behavior...this book provides powerful methodological and theoretical guidance for for students of voting behavior and an important reminder to bring the competitive dynamic back into our models of voting behavior."
Matthew M. Singer, Journal of Politics

Economic conditions are said to affect election outcomes, but past research has produced unstable and contradictory findings. This book argues that these problems are caused by the failure to take account of electoral competition between parties. A research strategy to correct this problem is designed and applied to investigate effects of economic conditions on (individual) voter choices and (aggregate) election outcomes over 42 elections in 15 countries. It shows that economic conditions exert small effects on individual party preferences, which can have large consequences for election outcomes. In countries where responsibility for economic policy is clear, voters vote retrospectively and reward or punish incumbent parties - although in coalition systems smaller government parties often gain at the expense of the largest party when economic conditions deteriorate. Where clarity of responsibility for economic policy is less clear, voters vote more prospectively on the basis of expected party policies.

1. Studying economic voting
2. Party choice as a two-stage process
3. Hypotheses and data: the theoretical and empirical setting
4. Effects of the economy on party support
5. The economic voter
6. From individual preferences to election outcomes
7. The economy, party competition, and the vote.

Subject Areas: Political economy [KCP], Politics & government [JP], Sociology [JHB]