The Dynamics of Public Opinion

This Element develops an explanation of how and why all public policy preferences move over time.

Mary Layton Atkinson (Author), K. Elizabeth Coggins (Author), James A. Stimson (Author), Frank R. Baumgartner (Author)

9781108819114, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 11 November 2021

75 pages
22.7 x 15.2 x 0.5 cm, 0.134 kg

A central question in political representation is whether government responds to the people. To understand that, we need to know what the government is doing, and what the people think of it. We seek to understand a key question necessary to answer those bigger questions: How does American public opinion move over time? We posit three patterns of change over time in public opinion, depending on the type of issue. Issues on which the two parties regularly disagree provide clear partisan cues to the public. For these party-cue issues we present a slight variation on the thermostatic theory from (Soroka and Wlezien (2010); Wlezien (1995)); our “implied thermostatic model.” A smaller number of issues divide the public along lines unrelated to partisanship, and so partisan control of government provides no relevant clue. Finally, we note a small but important class of issues which capture response to cultural shifts.

1. Introduction
2. Implied Thermostatic Response
3. Absolute Opinion Change
4. Conclusion
Appendix: Comparing the Survey Research Agenda to the Congressional Agenda.

Subject Areas: Political structure & processes [JPH], Political ideologies [JPF], Comparative politics [JPB], Political science & theory [JPA], Politics & government [JP]