The Climate Demon
Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction

An introduction to the complex world of climate models that explains why we should trust their predictions despite the uncertainties.

R. Saravanan (Author)

9781009018043, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 21 October 2021

350 pages
22.9 x 15.5 x 1.9 cm, 0.65 kg

'This well-written, balanced text, accessible for readers with an extraordinary range of interests and expertise, will be useful to all and should be on the shelf in every academic library … Highly recommended. D. Bantz, Choice

Climate predictions - and the computer models behind them - play a key role in shaping public opinion and our response to the climate crisis. Some people interpret these predictions as 'prophecies of doom' and some others dismiss them as mere speculation, but the vast majority are only vaguely aware of the science behind them. This book gives a balanced view of the strengths and limitations of climate modeling. It covers historical developments, current challenges, and future trends in the field. The accessible discussion of climate modeling only requires a basic knowledge of science. Uncertainties in climate predictions and their implications for assessing climate risk are analyzed, as are the computational challenges faced by future models. The book concludes by highlighting the dangers of climate 'doomism', while also making clear the value of predictive models, and the severe and very real risks posed by anthropogenic climate change.

List of figures
Preface
Acknowledgements
Introduction
Part I. The Past: 1. Deducing weather: The dawn of computing
2. Predicting weather: The butterfly and the tornado
3. The greenhouse effect: Goldilocks and the three planets
4. Deducing climate: Smagorinsky's laboratory
5. Predicting climate: Butterflies in the greenhouse
6. The ozone hole: Black swan at the polar dawn
7. Global warming: From gown to town. Part II: The Present: 8. Occam's razor: The reduction to simplicity
9. Constraining climate: A conservative view of modeling
10. Tuning climate: A comedy of compensating errors
11. Occam's beard: The emergence of complexity
12. The Hansen paradox: The red Queen's race of climate modeling
13. The Rumsfeld matrix: Degrees of knowledge
14. Lost in translation
15. Taking climate models seriously, not literally. Part III. The Future: 16. Moore's law: To exascale and beyond
17. Machine learning: The climate imitation game
18. Geoengineering: Reducing the fever
19. Pascal's wager: Hedging our climate bets
20. Moonwalking into the future. Epilogue. Glossary. Selected Bibliography. References. Index. Endnotes.

Subject Areas: Social impact of environmental issues [RNT], Climate change [RNPG], History of science [PDX], Mathematical modelling [PBWH], Data analysis: general [GPH]