Statements of Resolve
Achieving Coercive Credibility in International Conflict

This book analyzes the conditions under which leaders can use resolved statements to effectively coerce foreign adversaries.

Roseanne W. McManus (Author)

9781107170346, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 25 July 2017

250 pages, 20 b/w illus. 18 tables
23.5 x 16 x 1.8 cm, 0.49 kg

'Statements of Resolve signi?cantly expands the current scholarly understanding of how statements of resolve elicit changes in adversaries' behaviours. An ability to follow through is a previously overlooked, but important, determinant of the ef?cacy of such statements. McManus' pathbreaking theory and new data lay the ground for future studies on foreign policy analysis and strategic interactions between states, as well as useful policy implications regarding ideal conditions in which political leaders can make statements of resolve effectively.' Jin Mun Jeong, International Studies Review

Statements of resolve - in which leaders indicate that their country is committed to a position and will not back down - are a fixture of international conflict. However, scholars have not agreed on how much these statements affect conflict outcomes or which conditions give them coercive credibility. Statements of Resolve argues that an important and underappreciated factor influencing the impact of resolved statements is the ability to follow through. Roseanne W. McManus explains how adversaries analyze a leader's ability to follow through on statements and shows that perceptions of the ability to follow through are influenced not only by military capabilities but also by less obvious domestic political conditions. Through rigorous statistical tests based on quantitative coding of US presidential statements and case studies of three Cold War conflicts, this book shows that resolved statements can effectively coerce adversaries, but only when a sufficient physical and political ability is present.

Introduction
Part I. Background and Theory: 1. The ability to follow through and other conditions for statements' effectiveness
Part II. Data on Statements and Statistical Analysis: 2. Data on statements and when they are made
3. The general effectiveness of resolved statements
4. Evidence regarding the conditions for statements' effectiveness
5. Relationship among the conditions for statements' effectiveness
Part III. Case Studies: 6. Cuban missile crisis
7. Refreezing of the Cold War
8. Vietnam war
Conclusion
Appendices
Appendix 1. Formal model of the effect of veto players
Appendix 2. Formal model of the effect of security in office
Appendix 3. Content analysis dictionary
References
Index.

Subject Areas: International relations [JPS], Politics & government [JP]