Reassessing the Incumbency Effect

This book argues that House incumbents have not improved their electoral fortunes in recent decades.

Jeffrey M. Stonecash (Author)

9780521733229, Cambridge University Press

Paperback, published 22 September 2008

184 pages, 23 tables
22.9 x 15.2 x 1.1 cm, 0.26 kg

Incumbents in the US House of Representatives have increased their vote percentages in recent decades, raising questions about the efficacy of elections in making members responsive. The evidence, however, indicates there has been no improvement in the electoral fortunes of incumbents in the last 50 years. Only Republicans have improved their electoral fortunes as a result of realignment. This valuable book provides a very different interpretation of how incumbents have fared in recent decades, and the interpretation is supported by non-technical data analysis and presentation.

Part I. An Increased Incumbency Effect: Reconsidering Evidence: 1. An increased incumbency effect and American politics
2. The consensus about a greater incumbency effect
3. The trend in incumbent vote percentages
4. Cumulative career changes
5. The retirement slump
Part II. Realignment and the Fortunes of (Some) Incumbents: 6. An alternative framework: the role of realignment
7. A partisan view of incumbent percentages
8. The role of realignment
9. Conclusions and implications
Part III. Appendices: More Detailed Analyses of Incumbency Indicators: Appendix A. The Gelman–King estimation
Appendix B. Realignment and the retirement slump
Appendix C. The data.

Subject Areas: Political parties [JPL], Elections & referenda [JPHF], Politics & government [JP]