Quagmire in Civil War

Rebuts the pervasive 'folk' notion that quagmire is intrinsic to a country or civil war. Shows that quagmire is made, not found.

Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl (Author)

9781108708265, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 9 January 2020

340 pages, 14 b/w illus. 7 maps 29 tables
22.8 x 15.3 x 1.7 cm, 0.56 kg

'… by expanding the theoretical horizons for understanding complex and entrenched conflicts, 'Quagmire in Civil War' indicates ways to further advance our fields of knowledge. Its focus on interactions over time and externally influenced turning points sheds light on parts of the literature that have been in need of this kind of rigorous and detailed attention. It also offers a glimmer of hope, because if correctly identified, such junctures offer opportunities where liberation from seemingly intractable conflict can become possible.' Claudia Seymour, Swiss Political Science Review

Our understanding of civil war is shot through with the spectre of quagmire, a situation that traps belligerents, compounding and entrenching war's dangers. Despite the subject's importance, its causes are obscure. A pervasive 'folk' notion that quagmire is intrinsic to certain countries or wars has foreclosed inquiry, and scholarship has failed to identify quagmire as an object of study in its own right. Schulhofer-Wohl provides the first treatment of quagmire in civil war. In a rigorous but accessible analysis, he explains how quagmire can emerge from domestic-international interactions and strategic choices. To support the argument, Schulhofer-Wohl draws upon field research on Lebanon's sixteen-year civil war, structured comparisons with civil wars in Chad and Yemen, and rigorous statistical analyses of all civil wars worldwide fought between 1944 and 2006. The results make clear that the 'folk' notion misdiagnoses quagmire and demand that we revisit policies that rest upon it. Schulhofer-Wohl demonstrates that quagmire is made, not found.

1. Introduction
2. A theory of quagmire
3. The Lebanese civil war, 1975–1990: issues, actors, turning points, explanations
4. Mechanisms of quagmire in Lebanon
5. Civil wars worldwide, 1944–2006
6. Comparative evidence from Chad and Yemen
7. A field guide to quagmire.

Subject Areas: Civil defence [JWKW], International institutions [JPSN], Geopolitics [JPSL], International relations [JPS], Politics & government [JP]