Prospect Theory
For Risk and Ambiguity

A text in decision theory with applications to economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management, health, computer science, statistics, and engineering.

Peter P. Wakker (Author)

9780521748681, Cambridge University Press

Paperback, published 22 July 2010

518 pages, 106 b/w illus. 57 tables 187 exercises
24.4 x 17.3 x 2.3 cm, 1 kg

'The need for realistic models of economic decisions involving risk and uncertainty, with plausible behavioral foundations, has never been more acute. Peter Wakker provides an intuitive and accessible, but rigorous, treatment of prospect theory, widely accepted as the main alternative to the hyper-rational expected utility model. This is the only book-length treatment of this important topic, and seems certain to dominate the field for years to come.' John Quiggin, University of Queensland

Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.

Preface
Introduction
Part I. Expected Utility: 1. The general model of decision under uncertainty no-arbitrage (expected utility with known utilities and unknown probabilities)
2. Expected utility with known probabilities - 'risk' - and unknown utilities
3. Applications of expected utility for risk
4. Expected utility with unknown probabilities and unknown utilities
Part II. Nonexpected Utility for Risk: 5. Heuristic arguments for probabilistic sensitivity and rank dependence
6. Probabilistic sensitivity and rank dependence analyzed
7. Applications and extensions of rank dependence
8. Where prospect theory deviates from rank-dependent utility and expected utility: reference dependence versus asset integration
9. Prospect theory for decision under risk
Part III. Nonexpected Utility for Uncertainty: 10. Extending rank-dependent utility from risk to uncertainty
11. Ambiguity: where uncertainty extends beyond risk
12. Prospect theory for uncertainty
13. Conclusion
Appendices
References
Index.

Subject Areas: Economic theory & philosophy [KCA], Economics [KC], Decision theory: general [GPQ]