Polling at a Crossroads
Rethinking Modern Survey Research

Polling at a Crossroads presents an intuitive paradigm that allows us to understand and confront the challenges facing modern polling.

Michael A. Bailey (Author)

9781108482790, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 7 March 2024

290 pages
23.5 x 15.9 x 2.2 cm, 0.56 kg

'Polling at a Crossroads arrives at a critical moment for survey research. As response rates continue to decline and new technologies transform how we communicate, Bailey's approach provides both a sobering assessment of current challenges and a constructive path forward. In addition, Bailey's clear exposition and practical examples make even complex concepts accessible. This book should be required reading for survey methodologists, pollsters, and anyone who relies on survey data to understand public opinion. Bailey has diagnosed what ails modern polling but also has provided a comprehensive treatment plan. Whether survey research is truly dead or merely transformed, Bailey's work ensures that we can approach its future with both clear eyes and suitable tools.' Adam J. Berinsky, Perspectives on Politics

Survey research is in a state of crisis. People have become less willing to respond to polls and recent misses in critical elections have undermined the field's credibility. Pollsters have developed many tools for dealing with the new environment, an increasing number of which rely on risky opt-in samples. Virtually all of these tools require that respondents in each demographic category are a representative sample of all people in each demographic category, something that is unlikely to be reliably true. Polling at a Crossroads moves beyond such strong limitations, providing tools that work even when survey respondents are unrepresentative in complex ways. This book provides case studies that show how to avoid underestimating Trump support and how conventional polls exaggerate partisan differences. This book also helps us think in clear and sometimes counterintuitive ways and points toward simple, low-cost changes that can better address contemporary polling challenges.

Part I. Polling in Context: 1. Modern Polling: Challenges and Opportunities
2. The Story of Polling in 2.5 Fiascos
3. Weighting: An Appreciation and Critique
4. The Wild West of Contemporary Polling
Part II. A Framework for Modern Polling: 5. Non-Ignorable Non-Response
6. Contemporary Polling and Non-Ignorable Non-Response
Part III. Fighting Non-Ignorable Non-Response: 7. Bounding Damage from Non-Ignorable Non-Response
8. Selection Models for Non-Ignorable Non-Response
9. Next Generation Selection Models
10. Randomized Response Instruments
11. Putting it Together
Part IV Applications: 12. Non-Ignorable Non-Response in Political Surveys
13. Non-Ignorable Non-Response in Public Health
14. Conclusion.

Subject Areas: Social research & statistics [JHBC]