Politics and Uncertainty
Theory, Models and Applications

This book provides a direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically-knowable phenomenon.

Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (Author)

9780521581219, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 16 July 1998

364 pages, 43 b/w illus. 20 tables
22.9 x 15.2 x 2.4 cm, 0.68 kg

"Claudio Cioffi-Revilla ranks high among political theorists who advise the use of mathematics to make political science more precise and scientific. Politics and Uncertainty couples politics with randomness, from which it follows that mathematical models can make what is improbable predictable." Bertil L. Hanson, Perspectives on Political Science

Uncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics. It affects all important issues of governance and policy, in both domestic and international contexts. Rather than treating the uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically-knowable phenomenon with well-defined principles and substantive properties. Specific applications of this theory of political uncertainty are demonstrated in diverse areas of politics, examining such questions as when and how wars break out, when and how governments collapse, and when and how political cooperation emerges. The author shows how probability and mathematical modeling can play a central role in understanding such complex and fundamental issues.

Part I. Foundations: 1. Introduction
Part II. Macropolitics: 2. Behavior of political variables
3. General macropolitical principles
4. Special macropolitical principles
Part III. Micropolitics: 5. Occurrence of political events
6. General Micropolitical principles
7. Special micropolitical principles
Part IV. Conclusions: 8. Synthesis.

Subject Areas: Political science & theory [JPA]