Perfect Deterrence

The first general analysis of deterrence since the Cold War, using game theory and containing numerous historical examples.

Frank C. Zagare (Author), D. Marc Kilgour (Author)

9780521781749, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 21 September 2000

442 pages, 38 b/w illus. 15 tables
23.6 x 16 x 3.4 cm, 0.806 kg

'Perfect Deterrence is the most insightful and comprehensive book on modern deterrence theory ever written. It is also amazingly accessible. I can't imagine teaching a graduate or advanced undergraduate course in either international relations or security without it.' George Downs, New York University

An important and timely contribution to International Relations and political science, this is the first general analysis of deterrence since the end of the Cold War. Using non-cooperative game theory, the authors develop a new approach to deterrence (Perfect Deterrence Theory), which they apply to unilateral and mutual direct-deterrence relationships, and to extended-deterrence relationships supported by deployment policies such as Massive Retaliation and Flexible Response. The authors focus on the relationship among capabilities, preferences, credibility, and outcomes to achieve a new understanding of threats and responses. Some surprising conclusions emerge, indicating that credible threats to respond to attack can sometimes make an attack more likely, and that incredible response threats can sometimes promote peace. With the application of deterrence theory in diverse social settings, and historical examples from before, during, and after the Cold War, this book provides a welcome new examination of the subject.

Part I. Theoretical Underpinnings: 1. Classical deterrence theory
2. Rationality and deterrence
3. Credibility: the magic ingredient of deterrence
Part II. Direct Deterrence: 4. Uncertainty and mutual deterrence
5. Unilateral deterrence
Part III. Extended Deterrence: 6. Extended deterrence
7. Modeling massive retaliation
8. Modeling flexible response
9. Crisis, escalation, and limited war
Part IV. Implications: 10. Perfect deterrence theory.

Subject Areas: International relations [JPS]