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Modelling Complex Projects
Terry Williams (Author)
9780471899457, Wiley
Hardback, published 27 August 2002
288 pages
23.7 x 16 x 2.8 cm, 0.567 kg
“…provides a lot of useful information about model building in general.” (Project Net, April 2004) "...an essential resource for those required to model how a project may behave under certain circumstances..." (Jnl of the Operation Research Society, Vol 54(12), 2004) "...well conceived, well written, and well produced..." (Chemistry World, 1 Feb 2004)
Es ist allgemein bekannt, dass die traditionellen Methoden des Projektmanagment für die Bewältigung der modernen Projektsituation nicht mehr ausreichen. Heute werden Projekte immer komplexer, und die Kunden geben einen immer enger gesteckten Zeitrahmen vor. Entsprechend gilt es, Probleme, wie z.B. unzureichende Planung und Risikoanalyse, unwirksame Projektüberwachung und -steuerung sowie wenig fundierte nachträgliche Analysen von vornherein zu vermeiden. Dieses Buch hilft Ihnen dabei! "Modelling Complex Projects" ist das erste Buch, das sich ausschließlich mit dem Thema Projektmodellierung beschäftigt. Es vermittelt wirkungsvolle Modellierungstechniken, die der besonderen Komplexität moderner Projekte gerecht werden. Diskutiert wird eine breite Palette neuer Techniken, wobei auch auf ihre jeweiligen Vorteile und Kombinationsmöglichkeiten eingegangen wird. Mit zahlreichen Fallstudien.
1 This Book 1 Introduction to the book and the author 1 Why is there a need for this book? 3 The structure of this book 7 What do I need to know before I read this book? 8 Conclusion 11 2 Projects 13 What is a project? 13 What are project objectives? 15 Basic project management techniques 18 Projects referred to in this book 23 Conclusion 29 3 Modelling 31 What is a model? 31 Why do we model? 35 Modelling in practice 40 Validation 44 Conclusion 47 4 What is a Complex Project? 49 Introduction 49 What is complexity? Structural complexity 50 What is complexity? Uncertainty 55 What is complexity? Summary 58 Increasing complexity 59 Tools and techniques—and the way ahead 62 5 Discrete Effects and Uncertainty 65 Introduction 65 Uncertainty and risk in projects 66 Cost risk: additive calculations 78 Time risk: effects in a network 89 Analysing time risk: simulation 96 Criticality and cruciality 104 The three criteria and beyond 115 Conclusion 118 6 Discrete Effects: Collecting Data 119 Introduction 119 Collecting subjective data: identification 121 Collecting subjective data: general principles of quantification 123 Collecting subjective data: simple activity-duration models 126 Effect of targets 131 Conclusion 136 7 The Soft Effects 137 Introduction 137 Some key project characteristics 139 Client behaviour and external effects on the project 140 Management decisions 146 Project staffing 149 Subjective effects within the project 151 Summary and looking forward 154 8 Systemic Effects 155 The effects 155 A brief introduction to cause mapping 157 Qualitative modelling: simple compounding 158 Qualitative modelling: loops 161 Quantitative modelling 163 9 System Dynamics Modelling 167 Introduction to system dynamics 167 Using system dynamics with mapping 171 Elements of models 175 Production elements 176 Other elements 188 Managerial actions 189 How effects compound 193 Validation 195 Conclusion 196 10 Hybrid Methods: The Way Forward? 199 Introduction 199 Adapting standard models using lessons learned from SD 200 Using conventional tools to generate SD models 205 Using SD and conventional models to inform each other 206 Extending SD: discrete events and stochastic SD 208 The need for intelligence 210 Conclusion 212 11 The Role of the Modeller 215 Introduction 215 Project management 215 What makes a good modeller? 217 Stages of project modelling 219 Chapter summary 230 12 Conclusion 233 Appendix: Extension of time claims 235 References 249 Index 265
Subject Areas: Business & management [KJ]
