Managing Strategic Surprise
Lessons from Risk Management and Risk Assessment

Asks whether risk management techniques can be successfully applied to contemporary national security challenges.

Paul Bracken (Edited by), Ian Bremmer (Edited by), David Gordon (Edited by)

9780521883153, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 7 August 2008

336 pages, 39 b/w illus.
23.4 x 15.6 x 2.4 cm, 0.66 kg

'In a volatile, globalized world, we worry about surprises. We fret over how to predict low probability - high risk events. Since no one has a crystal ball, engineers have worked on methods for managing unpredictable risks. But the use of 'risk screens', now so widely accepted in the private sector has been largely ignored in the far more consequential realm of international politics. To offer help, Bracken, Bremmer, and Gordon have assembled a world-class team of contributors to outline the methods and show how to apply them in international policymaking. This is a huge service in an area where the need is so great yet the methods and professional training are so weak. Aided by these excellent essays, readers will find that these ideas are practical too' Philip Zelikow, Former Executive Director of the 9/11 Commission

The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.

1. Introduction Paul Bracken, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon
2. How to build a warning system Paul Bracken
3. Intelligence management as risk management: the case of surprise attack Uzi Arad
4. Nuclear proliferation epidemiology: uncertainty, surprise, and risk management Lewis A. Dunn
5. Precaution against terrorism Jessica Stern and Jonathan B. Wiener
6. Defense planning and risk management in the presence of deep uncertainty Paul K. Davis
7. Managing energy security risks in a changing world Coby van der Linde
8. What markets miss: political stability frameworks and country risk Preston Keat
9. The risk of failed state contagion Jeffrey Herbst
10. Conclusion: managing strategic surprise Paul Bracken, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon.

Subject Areas: Management decision making [KJMD], Management accounting & bookkeeping [KFCM], International relations [JPS], Sociology [JHB]