Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments
Connecting the Dots

Using a flexible software system, this book teaches evidential and inferential issues used in drawing conclusions from masses of evidence.

Gheorghe Tecuci (Author), David A. Schum (Author), Dorin Marcu (Author), Mihai Boicu (Author)

9781107122604, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 30 August 2016

272 pages, 111 colour illus. 23 tables
26.1 x 18.4 x 1.7 cm, 0.78 kg

'This is an important work in several ways. The authors both help readers learn the basics and give advanced training in the craft of analytical reasoning by providing sophisticated tools to guide understanding of its strengths, its probabilistic nature, and its limitations. 'Deep' learning is what distinguishes experts from gifted amateurs; this book will help amateurs develop expert habits through guided learning and practice. I would not only recommend this book for students of intelligence, but also for students of law, journalism, and national security. The first several chapters should be mandatory reading for 'customers' and critics of intelligence, including policymakers, legislators, and professional journalists who are quick to ask 'why didn't you connect the dots?' while they themselves probably have no idea how difficult that may be.' Mark T. Clark, Director, National Security Studies, California State University, San Bernardino, and President, Association for the Study of Middle East and Africa (ASMEA)

This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence; and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence. To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence, which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses.

1. Intelligence analysis: 'connecting the dots'
2. Marshaling thoughts and evidence for imaginative analysis
3. Disciple-CD: a cognitive assistant for connecting the dots
4. Evidence
5. Divide and conquer: a necessary approach to complex analysis
6. Assessing the believability of evidence
7. Chains of custody
8. Recurrent substance-blind combinations of evidence
9. Major sources of uncertainty in masses of evidence
10. Assessing and reporting uncertainty: some alternative methods
11. Analytic bias
12. Learning and reusing analytic expertise: beyond Disciple-CD.

Subject Areas: Artificial intelligence [UYQ]