Freshly Printed - allow 7 days lead
Couldn't load pickup availability
Future Ready
How to Master Business Forecasting
Steve Morlidge (Author), Steve Player (Author)
9780470747056, Wiley
Hardback, published 27 November 2009
332 pages
23.5 x 16 x 2.3 cm, 0.608 kg
The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market."
—Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC
—Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro
—Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting
—Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group
Table of Figures xi Foreword xiii Preface xv Acknowledgements xxv Section 1 ‘Why?’ 1 Chapter 1 Part 1 Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble I’ve Seen 3 Chapter 1 Part 2 Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and the Remedy 17 Section 2 Principles 33 Chapter 2 Mastering Purpose – the Cassandra Paradox 35 Chapter 3 Mastering Time – Delay and Decision 57 Chapter 4 Mastering Models: Mapping the Future 87 Chapter 5 Mastering Measurement – Learning to Love Error 125 Chapter 6 Mastering Risks: How the Paranoid Survive 151 Section 3 ‘Praxis’ 179 Chapter 7 Mastering Process: The Mother of Good Fortune 183 Theme #1 Recipe for success: tips and traps 183 Theme #2 Coordination in a complex system: how different can we be? 198 Theme #3 ‘Whose job is it anyway?’ Roles and responsibilities 210 Section 4 Transformation 219 Chapter 8 Implementation: Beginnings and Endings 221 Chapter 9 Beyond Forecasting: The Biggest Barrier 233 Chapter 10 Beyond Budgeting: A New Management Model? 243 Chapter 11 Conclusion: Reconnection 257 Glossary 261 Appendix 1 – Design Principles: A Summary 267 Appendix 2 – Important Concepts in Systems and Cybernetics 275 References 289 Index 295
Subject Areas: Business & management [KJ]
