Explaining the Evidence
How the Mind Investigates the World

This book explores how we investigate the world and make sense of complex evidence, revealing both our strengths and flaws.

David A. Lagnado (Author)

9781107006003, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 21 October 2021

275 pages
23.5 x 15.8 x 2.3 cm, 0.63 kg

'This book is a terrific read. It is engaging on every level. Using examples of reasoning about crimes, Lagnado skilfully applies theories from empirical psychology. The result is a highly readable introduction to statistical reasoning, Bayes nets representations of causal relationships, heuristically useful reasoning strategies and much more. I strongly recommend it.' James F. Woodward, Distinguished Professor of History and Philosophy of Science, University of Pittsburgh, USA

How do we make sense of complex evidence? What are the cognitive principles that allow detectives to solve crimes, and lay people to puzzle out everyday problems? To address these questions, David Lagnado presents a novel perspective on human reasoning. At heart, we are causal thinkers driven to explain the myriad ways in which people behave and interact. We build mental models of the world, enabling us to infer patterns of cause and effect, linking words to deeds, actions to effects, and crimes to evidence. But building models is not enough; we need to evaluate these models against evidence, and we often struggle with this task. We have a knack for explaining, but less skill at evaluating. Fortunately, we can improve our reasoning by reflecting on inferential practices and using formal tools. This book presents a system of rational inference that helps us evaluate our models and make sounder judgments.

1. The Cliff Death
2. Models in Mind
3. Causal Modelling
4. Thinking Beyond Biases
5. Expert Reasoning in Crime Investigation
6. Questions of Evidence
7. Competing Causes
8. Confirmation Bias: Good, Bad and Ugly
9. Telling Stories
10. Idioms for Legal Reasoning
11. Causal Reasoning in a Time of Crisis
References.

Subject Areas: Criminal law & procedure [LNF], Cognition & cognitive psychology [JMR], Crime & criminology [JKV]