Evidential Decision Theory

This Element introduces the only decision theory that really treats human decisions as part of nature, not supernatural interventions.

Arif Ahmed (Author)

9781108713399, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 21 October 2021

75 pages
22.8 x 15.2 x 0.7 cm, 0.176 kg

Evidential Decision Theory is a radical theory of rational decision-making. It recommends that instead of thinking about what your decisions *cause*, you should think about what they *reveal*. This Element explains in simple terms why thinking in this way makes a big difference, and argues that doing so makes for *better* decisions. An appendix gives an intuitive explanation of the measure-theoretic foundations of Evidential Decision Theory.

1. Introduction
2. News Value
3. Self-signalling
4. Randomization
5. Harmony
6. Conclusion
Appendix A: Non-binary News Value
Appendix B: Randomization and Accuracy
Appendix C: Jeffrey-Bolker Representation Theorem.

Subject Areas: Philosophy of science [PDA], Philosophy: logic [HPL], Philosophy [HP], Decision theory: general [GPQ]