Discourse on Social Planning under Uncertainty

Provides a broad perspective on the vexing problem of social planning under uncertainty, and specific methodologies to cope with it.

Charles F. Manski (Author)

9781009556781, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 9 January 2025

272 pages
23.5 x 15.9 x 2 cm, 0.54 kg

Economists have long studied policy choice by social planners aiming to maximize population welfare. Whether performing theoretical studies or applied analyses, researchers have generally assumed that the planner knows enough about the choice environment to be able to determine an optimal action. However, the consequences of decisions are often highly uncertain. Discourse on Social Planning under Uncertainty addresses the failure of research to come to grips with this uncertainty. Combining research across three fields – welfare economics, decision theory, and econometrics – this impressive study offers a comprehensive treatment that fleshes out a 'worldview' and juxtaposes it with other viewpoints. Building on multiple case studies, ranging from medical treatment to climate policy, the book explains analytical methods and how to apply them, providing a foundation on which future interdisciplinary work can build.

Preface
1. Credible Planning Under Uncertainty
Part I. Characterizing Uncertainty
2. Incredible Certitude
3. Identification of Treatment Response
4. Identification of Choice Behavior and Personal Welfare
Part II. Analyses of Planning Problems: 5. Diversified Treatment under Ambiguity
6. Treatment with Data from Statistically Imprecise Trials
7. Personalized Treatment
8. Vaccination with Unknown Indirect Effects
9. Climate Planning with Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting
10. Looking Ahead.

Subject Areas: Public finance [KFFD]