Decision Theory with a Human Face

Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.

Richard Bradley (Author)

9781108793612, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 2 April 2020

349 pages, 20 b/w illus.
22.5 x 15.5 x 2 cm, 0.52 kg

'This book represents an important step forward in the literature, and Bradley does an impressive job in providing a rigorous treatment of decision theory that refuses to idealise away from key features of human rationality.' Timothy Luke Williamson, Metascience

When making decisions, people naturally face uncertainty about the potential consequences of their actions due in part to limits in their capacity to represent, evaluate or deliberate. Nonetheless, they aim to make the best decisions possible. In Decision Theory with a Human Face, Richard Bradley develops new theories of agency and rational decision-making, offering guidance on how 'real' agents who are aware of their bounds should represent the uncertainty they face, how they should revise their opinions as a result of experience and how they should make decisions when lacking full awareness of, or precise opinions on relevant contingencies. He engages with the strengths and flaws of Bayesian reasoning, and presents clear and comprehensive explorations of key issues in decision theory, from belief and desire to semantics and learning. His book draws on philosophy, economics, decision science and psychology, and will appeal to readers in all of these disciplines.

List of figures
List of tables
Preface
Introduction
Part I. Rationality, Uncertainty and Choice: 1. Decision problems
2. Rationality
3. Uncertainty
4. Justifying Bayesianism
Part II. Prospective Rationality: 5. Rational belief and desire
6. Conditional attitudes
7. Conditionals and the Ramsey Test
Part III. Facing the World: 8. Multidimensional possible world semantics
9. Taking action
10. The learning agent
Part IV. Rationality Within Bounds: 11. Imprecise Bayesianism
12. Changing your mind
13. Decision making under severe uncertainty
14. Confidence
Bibliography
Index.

Subject Areas: Philosophy of science [PDA], Decision theory: general [GPQ]