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Decision-Making for Earth Resource Development
Quantifying Uncertainty

Jef Caers (Edited by), Caers (Author), Céline Scheidt (Edited by), Lewis Li (Edited by)

9781394306763, Wiley

Hardback, published 15 July 2026

384 pages
27.7 x 21.8 x 2.3 cm, 1.27 kg

Earth’s subsurface offers many vital resources—such as minerals, geothermal energy, and clean water—but decisions regarding exploration and extraction must balance resource value against environmental impact. This can only be addressed by accepting uncertainty as an integral part of most decisions.

Decision-Making for Earth Resource Development presents uncertainty quantification strategies tested on real cases using a Bayesian methodology that can be applied to a wide variety of decision problems.

Volume highlights include:

  • Six substantial case studies, covering mineral exploration, geothermal heat feasibility, groundwater management, and more
  • Popper-Bayes protocol for formulating and solving uncertainty quantification problems
  • Machine learning approaches for Bayesian inversion
  • Decision-making with AI and high-performance computing
  • Investigation models using global sensitivity analysis in the geosciences
  • Software development for large-scale practical implementation

The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals.

List of Contributors vii

Preface ix

Acknowledgments xi

1 Real-World Decision-Making Cases 1
Jef Caers, John Mern, Jihoon Park, Troels Vilhelmsen, Torsten Clemens, Markus Zechner, Anthony Corso, Maria-Magdalena Chiotoroiu, Luka Tas, Thomas Hermans, Luk Peeters, Cameron Huddlestone-Holmes, Kate Holland, Rebecca Doble, Céline Scheidt, and Lewis Li

2 Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Using Artificial Intelligence 35
Jef Caers, Mansur Arief, Céline Scheidt, and Lewis Li

3 Data Science and Machine Learning for Uncertainty Quantification 83
Jef Caers, Céline Scheidt, and Lewis Li

4 Sensitivity Analysis 147
Jef Caers, Céline Scheidt, and Lewis Li

5 How to Think About Uncertainty: A Popper–Bayes Philosophy 173
Jef Caers, Céline Scheidt, and Lewis Li

6 Geological Priors and Inversion 199
Jef Caers, Céline Scheidt, and Lewis Li

7 A Popper–Bayes Protocol for Uncertainty Quantification in the Context of Decision-Making 265
Jef Caers, Céline Scheidt, and Lewis Li

8 Decision-Making in Developing Earth Resources 287
Jef Caers, John Mern, Jihoon Park, Troels Vilhelmsen, Torsten Clemens, Markus Zechner, Anthony Corso, Maria-Magdalena Chiotoroiu, Luka Tas, Thomas Hermans, Luk Peeters, Cameron Huddlestone-Holmes, Kate Holland, Rebecca Doble, Céline Scheidt, and Lewis Li

9 Software Engineering and Implementation 345
Duncan Eddy

Index 359

Subject Areas: Earth sciences [RB]
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