Costly Calculations
A Theory of War, Casualties, and Politics

Considers war initiation, wartime politics, war policies and war termination through the complex roles played by citizen wartime casualties.

Scott Sigmund Gartner (Author), Gary M. Segura (Author)

9781107427952, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 8 July 2021

225 pages
22.9 x 15.1 x 1.6 cm, 0.42 kg

'Costly Calculations is a foundational contribution to the study of war and domestic politics. Offering a general theory, Gartner and Segura argue that the perceived value of a war and its most salient cost, combat casualties, affect war support among the public and elites alike. The authors employ a rich, multimethod approach, finding that the effects of wartime deaths on public opinion are experienced differently across space, time, and individuals. Gartner and Segura's volume is an essential read that should reshape the study of war and public opinion.' Stephen P. Nicholson, Philip H. Alston Jr. Distinguished Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Georgia

Gartner and Segura consider the costs of war – both human and political – by examining the consequences of foreign combat, on domestic politics. The personal costs of war – the military war dead and injured – are the most salient measure of war costs generally and the primary instrument through which war affects domestic politics. The authors posit a general framework for understanding war initiation, war policy and war termination in democratic polities, and the role that citizens and their deaths through conflict play in those policy choices. Employing a variety of empirical methods, they examine multiple wars from the last 100 years, conducting analyses of tens of thousands of individuals across a wide variety of historical and hypothetical conditions, whilst also addressing policy implications. This study will be of interest to students and scholars in American foreign policy, international politics, public opinion, national security, American politics, communication studies, and military history.

1. Introduction
2. A price theory of war
3. Calculating war's price: what's it worth, and how much will it cost?
4. The price theory of war in action: experimental demonstrations of the impacts of expected costs and valuable war aims
5. Conflict dynamics across space and time: public opinion in the Korea and Vietnam wars
6. Getting wartime information from over-there to over-here: news media and social networks
7. Elite opinion formation and its electoral consequences
8. Conclusion: wars, casualties, politics and policies.

Subject Areas: Theory of warfare & military science [JWA], Warfare & defence [JW], Geopolitics [JPSL], Diplomacy [JPSD], International relations [JPS], Politics & government [JP], Military history [HBW]