China's Gambit
The Calculus of Coercion

Theorizes China's coercion decisions with rich empirical evidence, connecting concepts in international political economy and security.

Ketian Zhang (Author)

9781009423830, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 3 July 2025

246 pages
22.9 x 15.2 x 1.3 cm, 0.362 kg

'A welcome addition to the coercion literature in IR and the literature on China's foreign policy. The book expands our comprehension of coercive behaviors and their implications by Beijing … With its tightly scoped arguments, robust methodology, and clear relevance, Zhang's book contributes to our understanding of state coercion, foreign policy decision making, and China's international politics.' Dylan M. H. Loh, Perspectives on Politics

Emerging from an award-winning article in International Security, China's Gambit examines when, why, and how China attempts to coerce states over perceived threats to its national security. Since 1990, China has used coercion for territorial disputes and issues related to Taiwan and Tibet, yet China is curiously selective in the timing, target, and tools of coercion. This book offers a new and generalizable cost-balancing theory to explain states' coercion decisions. It demonstrates that China does not coerce frequently and uses military coercion less when it becomes stronger, resorting primarily to non-militarized tools. Leveraging rich empirical evidence, including primary Chinese documents and interviews with Chinese and foreign officials, this book explains how contemporary rising powers translate their power into influence and offers a new framework for explaining states' coercion decisions in an era of economic interdependence, particularly how contemporary global economic interdependence affects rising powers' foreign security policies.

1. Introduction
2. The cost balancing theory
3. Coercion in the south China sea
4. Sino-Japanese disputes in the east China sea
5. Coercion in cross-strait relations
6. Tibet and the dalai lama visits
7. Conclusion.

Subject Areas: International relations [JPS]