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China's Futures
Scenarios for the World's Fastest Growing Economy, Ecology, and Society
"It still amazes me how well the scenario process works in getting the practitioner to a place not accessed by other strategic thought processes. Whether the reader is a China novice or expert, this collection of scenarios will expand one's strategic thought horizons." —Tom Davis, vice president and chief economist, Motorola "This book provides a very interesting look at possible future Chinas. Three scenarios, all plausible, suggest how very different the outcomes could be." —A.W. Marshall, advisor for net assessment, United States Office of the Secretary of Defense "What makes China so interesting-and so unpredictable-is that opposite scenarios often have almost equal plausibility. Anyone trying to divine China's future will find this study both provocative and informative." —Orville Schell, longtime observer of China, author, and dean of the Graduate School of Journalism, University of California at Berkeley
James Ogilvy (Author), Peter Schwartz (Author)
9780787952006, Wiley
Hardback, published 2 February 2000
176 pages
24.5 x 16.1 x 2 cm, 0.381 kg
"...anyone concerned with the future of the region is likely to find this a useful read." (Long Range Planning, Vol.33, 2000)
Da China ein Fünftel der Weltbevölkerung stellt, wird es nicht nur einen großen Einfluß auf den Weltmarkt ausüben, sondern auch wesentlich auf die Volkswirtschaften Europas und Amerikas einwirken. James Ogilvy und Peter Schwartz stellen in "China's Future" drei faszinierende Szenarien zu Chinas Zukunft vor. Szenario Nr. 1 basiert auf einer dezentralisierten stadtbezogenen Wirtschaft, Nr. 2 zeigt die Vetternwirtschaft als Ausgangspunkt der neuen Wirtschaft und Nr. 3 zeichnet China, wie es im Sumpf der Korruption versinkt. Die Autoren analysieren ganz genau, welche Auswirkungen jede einzelne dieser Möglichkeiten auf die Weltwirtschaft hätte. Es bleibt nur die Frage unbeantwortet, für welchen Weg sich China entscheidet.
Preface.
Acknowledgements.
Introduction: China in the 21st Century: The World's Biggest Story.
THE WAY OF CHINA.
China Basics.
Driving Forces.
The Worms in the Core.
SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE OF CHINA.
An Introduction of Scenarios and Development Models.
Scenario One: China Web.
Scenario Two: The New Mandarins.
Scenario Three: The Thief of Beijing.
IMPLICATIONS HOW TO USE THESE SCENARIOS FOR OUR CHILDREN.
Subject Areas: Business & management [KJ]
