China's Crisis Behavior
Political Survival and Foreign Policy after the Cold War

The first study to systematically analyze the patterns of China's foreign policy crisis behavior after the Cold War.

Kai He (Author)

9781107141988, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 6 April 2016

186 pages, 3 b/w illus. 3 tables
23.5 x 15.8 x 1.4 cm, 0.41 kg

'When embroiled in international crises, Chinese leaders escalate in some cases, yet accommodate, even compromise in others: why? In this astute, original book, Kai He argues that nothing about Chinese leaders' international crises behavior can be understood without grasping how they see their prospect for political survival. Their perceptions of gains and losses are shaped by international pressure, the severity of the crisis, and the leaders' domestic authority which combine to define China's responses. With a concern for the choices of individual leaders in crisis situations, Kai He cleverly puts to the task prospect theory, the most influential descriptive theory of decision making under risk, and relies on a wealth of fresh sources to help us understand how Chinese leaders are likely to behave when the next crisis erupts. For anyone interested in China's rise, crisis diplomacy and the political psychology of strategy, this is an essential read.' Pascal Vennesson, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

Since the end of the Cold War, China has experienced several notable interstate crises: the 1999 'embassy bombing' incident, the 2001 EP-3 mid-air collision with a United States aircraft, and the Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute with Japan. China's response to each incident, however, has varied considerably. Drawing from a wealth of primary sources and interviews, this book offers a systematic analysis of China's crisis behavior in order to identify the factors which determine when Chinese leaders decide to escalate or scale down their response to crises. Inspired by prospect theory - a Nobel Prize-winning behavioral psychology theory - Kai He proposes a 'political survival prospect' model as a means to understand the disparities in China's behavior. He argues that China's response depends on a combination of three factors that shape leaders' views on the prospects for their 'political survival status', including the severity of the crisis, leaders' domestic authority, and international pressure.

1. China's foreign policy crises after the Cold War
2. Political survival and China's crisis behavior
3. The Yinhe incident and the Taiwan Strait crisis
4. The embassy bombing incident and the EP-3 mid-air collision
5. The Impeccable incident and the boat collision crisis
6. The Scarborough shoal dispute and Diaoyu/Senkaku purchase crisis
7. Leadership transition and China's future crisis behavior
Conclusion.

Subject Areas: International relations [JPS], Central government [JPQ], Constitution: government & the state [JPHC], Political science & theory [JPA], Military history: post WW2 conflicts [HBWS], Asian history [HBJF]