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Business Cycles
History, Theory and Investment Reality
Lars Tvede (Author)
9780470018064, Wiley
Hardback, published 13 April 2006
512 pages
23.1 x 16.4 x 3.3 cm, 0.964 kg
This entertaining book describes the global history of economic fluctuations and business cycle theory over more than 300 years. It explains the core of the problem and shows how cycles can be forecast and how they are managed by central banks. The book concludes with detailed studies of how sub-sectors of stocks, bonds, hedge funds, private equity funds, gold, exchange rates, real estate, commodities, art and collectibles fluctuate over different categories of business cycles.
List of Figures and Tables vii Preface xiii Part I The Discovery of Business Cycles 1 1. Gambling Man 3 2. Cash Payment 19 3. The Dream Team of Money 27 4. The Napoleon of Finance 47 5. Jay and the Phantom Gold 57 6. Seven Pioneers 67 Part II The First Business Cycle Theories 81 7. The Golden Era 83 8. The Archeologists 101 9. Fisher and Babson 107 10. Keynes and the Austrians 117 11. The Great Depression 127 12. Lover, Horseman, Economist 141 13. The Problem with Money 153 Part III A Hidden World 165 14. The Simulators 167 15. Brains of Steel 189 16. Fat Tails and All That 199 17. Monkey See, Monkey Do 213 18. Dot Bomb 231 Part IV The Essence 239 19. The State of the Art 241 20. Three Questions 251 21. The Five Main Drivers of Cycles 257 22. The Ten Challenges of Central Banking 271 Part V Business Cycles and Asset Prices 305 23. The Mother of All Cycles: Property 307 24. When Art was In 333 25. All That Glitters 349 26. What Things are Made of: Commodities 367 27. Bonds, Stocks and Funds 379 28. The World’s Biggest Market: Foreign Exchange 391 29. Business Cycles and Market Rotation 399 Afterword: The Beat of the Heart 421 Appendix 1: List of Important Events in Business Cycle Theory 423 Appendix 2: List of the Largest Financial Crises in History 429 Chapter Notes 433 Bibliography 449 Index 471
Subject Areas: Finance & accounting [KF]
