An Introduction to Decision Theory

A comprehensive and accessible introduction to all aspects of decision theory, now with new and updated discussions and over 140 exercises.

Martin Peterson (Author)

9781316606209, Cambridge University Press

Paperback / softback, published 30 March 2017

348 pages, 11 b/w illus. 97 tables
24.9 x 17.4 x 2 cm, 0.62 kg

Now revised and updated, this introduction to decision theory is both accessible and comprehensive, covering topics including decision making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory, and social choice theory. No mathematical skills are assumed, with all concepts and results explained in non-technical and intuitive as well as more formal ways. There are now over 140 exercises with solutions, along with a glossary of key terms and concepts. This second edition includes a new chapter on risk aversion as well as updated discussions of numerous central ideas, including Newcomb's problem, prisoner's dilemmas, and Arrow's impossibility theorem. The book will appeal particularly to philosophy students but also to readers in a range of disciplines, from computer science and psychology to economics and political science.

Preface
1. Introduction
2. The decision matrix
3. Decisions under ignorance
4. Decisions under risk
5. Utility
6. The mathematics of probability
7. The philosophy of probability
8. Bayesianism and pragmatic arguments
9. Causal vs evidential decision theory
10. Risk aversion
11. Game theory I: basic concepts and zero-sum games
12. Game theory II: nonzero-sum and cooperative games
13. Social choice theory
14. Overview of descriptive decision theory
Appendix A. Glossary
Further reading
Index.

Subject Areas: Philosophy of science [PDA], Economics [KC], Decision theory: general [GPQ]