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An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of States
How Taxes, Energy, and Worker Freedom Change Everything
"This is a book full of evidence, compelling in the way it reveals differences among states and clear consequences. Read, learn, and weep in some constituencies or give three cheers in others."
—George Shultz, distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, former United States Secretary of Labor, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of State, Director of the Office of Management and Budget and professor of economics at MIT and the University of Chicago
"Left wing, right wing, liberal, conservative, Democrat or Republican, Arthur Laffer's book, The Wealth of States has the facts and the framework for policymakers and citizens alike. Tapping decades of research and experience in state economics, Laffer, Moore, Sinquefield and Brown communicate clearly the guiding principles to elevate their states-and thus the nation as a whole-to levels of prosperity never before seen. State and local legislators should base their economic policies on this book-it's a game changer."
—Dick Cheney, 46th Vice President of the United States, former Secretary of Defense, member of the U.S. House of Representatives representing Wyoming and Chairman and CEO of Halliburton Company
"Wow! This compelling, comprehensive book will be the bible for state and local leaders who truly want rapid economic growth. It will profoundly, positively change politics and economics in America."
—Steve Forbes, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of Forbes Media
"Arthur Laffer is justly known as the father of Supply Side Economics whose pro-growth tax cuts combined with Reagan's policies of limited government, free enterprise and strong defense ushered in a twenty five year economic renaissance. He is not as well known for his work on the States, but this book will change that. With Stephen Moore, Rex Sinquefield and Travis Brown, Laffer uses the marvelous laboratory of the fifty States-set in the environment of free trade, population mobility and a common underlying federal structure-to demonstrate conclusively that economic policy matters. Where taxes are low, private property rights are strong and free enterprise prevails, prosperity grows. High taxes, big government and special interest domination may work politically to win elections, but they fail to bring home the bacon. Prosperity is not an accident or a fate, it is a choice-a freedom choice."
—Phil Gramm, former U.S. Representative and Senator representing Texas and professor of economics at Texas A&M University
"Arthur Laffer's latest book on the states makes it clear that running a state is a lot like running a business. The goals are the same: making our businesses and states more prosperous, competitive, and attractive to investors and citizens. With important lessons identified, The Wealth of States will make its mark."
—Jack Welch, Chairman and CEO of General Electric, 1981-2001
“The widening gap in policies and prosperity among the states has been a source of increasing controversy. The migration of people and businesses from high-tax states such as California and Illinois to fast-rising rivals Texas, Nevada, and Florida is creating a divide that, to some observers, mirrors the battle between emerging markets and aging economies in decline. . . . An important new book identifies a major factor that, the authors claim, separates the winners from the laggards: state income taxes . . . . Given the authors' pedigree, the conclusions are predictable: Imposing income taxes inevitably leads to economic decline and enriches the competing states that don't have them. What gives their arguments credence is the staggering wealth of data summoned to support their claims.”
—Shawn Tully, senior editor-at-large, Fortune, April 18, 2014.
“For the economist, the relocation decision offers a fascinating insight into the differences between attractive and repellent environments. If every state were exactly the same—same economy, same laws, same weather—the relocation decision wouldn’t tell us anything of interest. People would still move, but there wouldn’t be any discernible trends. We’d see the same number of people moving from Cuba to Florida as vice versa. But what if people systematically prefer one kind of jurisdiction over another when they move? . . . as a partial explanation for relocation decisions it’s a fascinating insight, one that informs an important new book by Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore, Rex Sinquefield, and Travis Brown, An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of States. The title, borrowed from Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations, promises a revolutionary reinterpretation of what makes American states wealthy and, remarkably, the authors deliver on their promise. What they find, in brief, is that low-tax states deliver more wealth without sacrificing the social services that tax revenues are supposed to fund. They also find that people move in massive numbers from high- to low-tax states.”
—F.H. Buckley, The American Spectator, May 14, 2014
Arthur Laffer (Author), Stephen Moore (Author), Rex A. Sinquefield (Author), Travis H. Brown (Author)
9781118921227, Wiley
Hardback, published 23 May 2014
368 pages
22.8 x 15.6 x 3.4 cm, 0.567 kg
A passionate, detailed, quantified argument for state-level tax reform An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of States explains why eliminating or lowering tax burdens at the state level leads to economic growth and wealth creation. A passionate argument for tax reform, the book shows that even states with small populations can benefit enormously with the right policies. The authors’ detailed exposition evaluates the impact state and local government policies have on a state’s relative performance and economic growth overall, backed up with economic data and analysis. Facts don’t lie. But they do point clearly to the failure of so-called progressive tax schemes designed more to curry favor with selected constituencies than to create an economic system that leads to individual wealth as the reward for hard work and entrepreneurial risk taking. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of States is a detailed and critical look at income taxation across the nation, and drills down into an analysis of the economic growth or malaise that results from tax policy. Arguing eloquently that a state cannot tax itself into prosperity, just as the impoverished cannot spend themselves into wealth, the authors point out what many inherently know but often fear to say out loud. The book provides detailed quantitative analysis, and discusses the policy variables that can have enormous effects on the financial well-being of states and individual residents, such as: An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of States shows everyone how to evaluate state-level fiscal and economic policies to become more competitive.
Prologue xiii Chapter 1 The Fall from Grace: The Story of States 11 and the Income Tax Adopted 1 The Implementation of an Income Tax—A Terrible Mistake 1 That Giant Sucking Sound Is People, Output, and Tax Revenue Fleeing Income Taxes 4 Economic Malaise 4 Misleading Measures 5 Ohio 7 The Story of New Jersey—A Colorful Example of Opportunity Wasted 10 Lower Tax Revenue 10 The Rhetoric Surrounding Tax Revenue and the Decline in Public Services 11 The Case of the Disappearing Tax Revenue 12 Connecticut 13 No Bang for the Buck—How Costly Tax Increases Fail to Result in Better Provision of Public Services 16 Chapter 2 Economic Metrics 23 Primary Economic Metrics 24 Tax Revenue Performance of All States over the Past Decade 32 The ALEC-Laffer State Rankings 37 Internal Revenue Service Tax Migration Data 39 Chapter 3 The Nine Members of the Fellowship of the Ring to Balance Out the Nine Nazgûl 53 An Analysis of the Top Personal Income Tax (PIT) Rates 56 Public Services and the Personal Income Tax 61 The Effects of Oil and Severance Taxes 63 A Longer-Term View of the Data 67 An Analysis of Corporate Income Taxes 69 An Analysis of the Overall Tax Burden 73 An Analysis of the ALEC-Laffer State Economic Competitiveness Index 76 Chapter 4 Piling On 81 An Analysis of the Property Tax Burden 82 An Analysis of the Sales Tax Burden 82 Estate and Inheritance Taxes 88 Right-to-Work Laws 90 Labor Force Unionization 93 State Minimum Wages 96 Chapter 5 Give unto Caesar 99 New Hampshire—Case in Point 104 Top Traders 121 Real-Time Mobility Index 127 Chapter 6 Why Growth Rates Differ: An Econometric Analysis of the Data 133 List of Variables 137 Gross State Product Growth: Single-Variable Analysis 141 Gross State Product Growth: Two-Variable Analysis 146 Gross State Product Growth: Three-Variable Analysis 149 Population Growth: Single-Variable Analysis 150 Population Growth: Two-Variable Analysis 153 Population Growth: Three-Variable Analysis 156 Population Growth: Four-Variable Analysis 157 Conclusions 158 Annotated Econometric Bibliography 159 Key Quotes from Econometric Bibliography 186 Chapter 7 Fiscal Parasitic Leakages: Texas versus California 193 A Tale of Two States—A 55-Point Summary 194 The November 2012 Elections in California and Texas 199 Economic Performance: California, Texas, and the United States 201 A Brief Note on Poverty Metrics 207 The Texas Oil Boom and California’s Oil Bust: A Clash of Economic Cultures 208 An Overview of Total State and Local Government Revenues—Texas and California 212 Texas, California, and the United States: A Comparison of Tax Revenue and Debt Financing 213 Policy Variables Affecting Growth 218 The Relationship among Taxation, Spending, and the Achievement of Policy Objectives—A Story of Parasitic Leakages 224 Intergovernmental Revenues, Federally Mandated Social Services, and State Welfare, Medicaid, and Food Stamp Programs 225 The Provision of Public Services by State and Local Governments 229 The Performance of State and Local Public Education 235 Highways: California versus Texas 239 Prisons: California and Texas 241 Conclusion 242 Chapter 8 Au Contraire, Mon Frère: Criticisms of Our Work— Our Responses 245 Conflicts of Interest and Policies 245 Taxes and Other Supply-Side Policy Variables Don’t Affect Population and Gross State Product Growth 247 Growth Is a Move from North to South, from Clouds to Sunshine, from Cold to Warm 251 Growth Is Predominantly a Matter of Education and Not Taxes and Other Economic Policy Measures 252 Personal Income per Capita and Median Income Growth as Measures of Success Show Taxes Don’t Matter 253 Tax Rate Cuts Are Public Service Cuts 257 Other Factors Affect Population Growth (Oil, Sunshine, Accessible Suburbs, Etc.), and Therefore Taxes, Right-to-Work Laws, and Other Supply-Side Variables Don’t 259 Correlations between Tax Rates and Growth Reflect a Simultaneous Equation Bias (Reverse Causation); That Is, Growth Causes Tax Cuts, Not the Reverse 261 There Are High-Tax States That Outperform Low-Tax States; Therefore the Supply-Side Theory Is Wrong 264 The Oklahoma Argument against Tax Cuts 267 Income Distribution Becomes More Even with Progressive High-Rate Tax Codes 270 The Probity of the ALEC-Laffer Measures Is Nonexistent; Therefore Their Policy Prescriptions Are Wrong 273 Federal Tax Rates Are More Important Than State Tax Rates, and Therefore State Tax Rates Don’t Matter 275 The Wealthy Used Public Resources, and They—Not Others—Should Pay for Those Public Resources; We Need More Progressive Taxes, Not Less 276 When Is Enough Evidence Enough? If the Facts Were Reversed, We Would Concede 277 Notes 281 Bibliography 295 Acknowledgments 317 About the Authors 319 Index 321
Subject Areas: Finance & accounting [KF]
