Advances in Decision Analysis
From Foundations to Applications

A mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis.

Ward Edwards (Edited by), Ralph F. Miles Jr. (Edited by), Detlof von Winterfeldt (Edited by)

9780521863681, Cambridge University Press

Hardback, published 23 July 2007

640 pages, 40 tables
24 x 16 x 3.1 cm, 0.968 kg

Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.

1. Introduction Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles, Jr and Detlof von Winterfeldt
Part I. History and Foundations of Decision Analysis: 2. The emergence of decision analysis Ralph F. Miles, Jr
3. The foundations of decision analysis revisited Ronald A. Howard
4. Decision analysis: a personal account of how it got started and evolved Howard Raiffa
5. Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards to decision analysis and behavioral research Lawrence D. Phillips and Detlof von Winterfeldt
Part II. Structuring Decision Problems: 6. Defining a decision analytic structure Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards
7. Developing objectives and attributes Ralph L. Keeney
Part III. Probabilities and Bayes Nets: 8. Eliciting probabilities from experts Steven C. Hora
9. Aggregation of expert probability judgments Robert T. Clemen and Robert L. Winkler
10. Model building with belief networks and influence diagrams Ross D. Shachter
11. A Bayesian approach to learning causal networks David Heckerman
Part IV. Utilities: 12. Utility and risk preferences David E. Bell
13. Practical value models Ralph L. Keeney and Detlof von Winterfeldt
14. Extensions of the subjective expected utility model Robert F. Nau
Part V. Risk Analysis: 15. Probabilistic risk analysis for engineered systems Vicki M. Bier and Louis Anthony Cox, Jr
16. The engineering risk analysis method and some applications M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
17. Health risk analysis for risk management decision-making Louis Anthony Cox, Jr
Part VI. Decision Analysis in a Behavioral and Organizational Context: 18. What have we learned from our mistakes? Barbara Mellers and Connson Locke
19. Decision conferencing Lawrence D. Phillips
20. Resource allocation decisions Don N. Kleinmuntz
21. From decision analysis to the decision organization James E. Matheson and David Matheson
22. Building decision competency in organizations Carl S. Spetzler
23. Negotiation analysis: between decisions and games James K. Sebenius
Part VII. Applications of Decision Analysis: 24. The adoption of multi-attribute utility theory for the evaluation of plutonium disposition options in the United States and Russia John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia and Vladimir I. Oussanov
25. Choosing a tritium supply technology for nuclear weapons: reflections on a controversial decision analysis Detlof von Winterfeldt
26. Applications of decision analysis to the military systems acquisition process Dennis M. Buede and Terry A. Bresnick
27. Balancing environmental and operational objectives in a nuclear refueling strategy Phillip C. Beccue and Jeffrey S. Stonebraker
28. Perspective on decision analysis applications Donald L. Keefer, Craig W. Kirkwood, and James L. Corner.

Subject Areas: Management decision making [KJMD], Psychology [JM], Decision theory: general [GPQ]