{"product_id":"risk-quantification-management-diagnosis-and-hedging-hardback-9780470019078","title":"Risk Quantification; Management, Diagnosis and Hedging (Hardback) 9780470019078","description":"\u003cfont face=\"Georgia\"\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"6\"\u003eRisk Quantification\u003c\/font\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\r\n\u003cfont size=\"5\"\u003eManagement, Diagnosis and Hedging\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"4\"\u003eLaurent Condamin (Author), Jean-Paul Louisot (Author), Patrick Na¿m (Author)\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e9780470019078, Wiley\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eHardback, published 8 December 2006\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e288 pages\u003cbr\u003e25.2 x 17.5 x 2.3 cm, 0.694 kg\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp align=\"justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e\"Risk Quantification\" ist das bislang einzige Buch auf dem Markt, das eine aktuelle und umfassende Betrachtung des Bereiches Risikomanagement bietet, wobei der Schwerpunkt klar auf der Quantifizierung von Risiken und weniger auf dem reinen Management liegt. Es vermittelt ein fundiertes Verständnis der zur Ermittlung des Risikopotenzials einsetzbaren Tools. Dabei geht es sowohl um die Quantifizierung des Risikos als auch um die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Risikoereignisses, seine Häufigkeit und Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit. Der Band gliedert sich in drei Teile. Teil 1 beschreibt die Grundlagen des Risikomanagement als einen dreistufigen Prozess - Diagnose, Verminderung und Finanzierung des Risikos - und demonstriert, warum die Quantifizierung (Messung, Bewertung und Analyse) von Risiken in allen Phasen des Prozesses so wichtig ist. Der Schwerpunkt liegt klar auf der praktischen Herangehensweise an das Problem und weniger auf statistischen Analyseverfahren. \u003cbr\u003e Teil 2 stellt ein bewährtes Toolset zur Risikoquantifizierung vor, erläutert sog. Score Cards zur Bewertung wichtiger Risikoindikatoren sowie Monte Carlo Simulation und Bayesianische Netze als Quantifizierungsansatz für die Risikomodellierung. \u003cbr\u003e Teil 3 demonstriert dann anschaulich anhand von Fallstudien, wie das Toolset auf die drei Stufen des Risikomanagement in der Praxis angewendet wird.\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eForeword xi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Foundations 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management: principles and practice 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefinitions 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSystematic and unsystematic risk 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInsurable risks 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExposure 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManagement 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management objectives 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOrganizational objectives 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther significant objectives 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management decision process 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 1–Diagnosis of exposures 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 2–Risk treatment 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 3–Audit and corrective actions 19\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eState of the art and the trends in risk management 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk profile, risk map or risk matrix 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrequency × Severity 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk financing and strategic financing 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom risk management to strategic risk management 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom managing physical assets to managing reputation 25\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom risk manager to chief risk officer 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy is risk quantification needed? 27\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk quantification – a knowledge-based approach 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCausal structure of risk 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBuilding a quantitative causal model of risk 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExposure, frequency, and probability 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExposure, occurrence, and impact drivers 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eControlling exposure, occurrence, and impact 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eControllable, predictable, observable, and hidden drivers 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCost of decisions 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk financing 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management programme as an influence diagram 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling an individual risk or the risk management programme 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Tool Box 43\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProbability basics 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction to probability theory 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConditional probabilities 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndependence 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBayes’ theorem 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRandom variables 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMoments of a random variable 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContinuous random variables 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMain probability distributions 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction–the binomial distribution 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverview of usual distributions 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFundamental theorems of probability theory 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmpirical estimation 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating probabilities from data 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFitting a distribution from data 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpert estimation 71\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom data to knowledge 71\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating probabilities from expert knowledge 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating a distribution from expert knowledge 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentifying the causal structure of a domain 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBayesian networks and influence diagrams 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction to the case 77\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction to Bayesian networks 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNodes and variables 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProbabilities 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDependencies 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInference 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLearning 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExtension to influence diagrams 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction to Monte Carlo simulation 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroductory example: structured funds 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management example 1 – hedging weather risk 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDescription 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCollecting information 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel 99\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManual scenario 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonte Carlo simulation 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management example 2– potential earthquake in cement industry 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnalysis 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonte Carlo simulation 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA bit of theory 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefinition 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimation according to Monte Carlo simulation 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRandom variable generation 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariance reduction 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSoftware tools 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Quantitative Risk Assessment: A Knowledge Modelling Process 119\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncreasing awareness of exposures and stakes 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eObjectives of risk assessment 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIssues in risk quantification 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk quantification: a knowledge management process 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe basel II framework for operational risk 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe three pillars 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOperational risk 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe basic indicator approach 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe sound practices paper 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe standardized approach 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe alternative standardized approach 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe advanced measurement approaches (AMA) 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk mitigation 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePartial use 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentification and mapping of loss exposures 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantification of loss exposures 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe candidate scenarios for quantitative risk assessment 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe exposure, occurrence, impact (XOI) model 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling and conditioning exposure at peril 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling and conditioning occurrence 137\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConsistency of exposure and occurrence 137\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvaluating the probability of occurrence 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConditioning the probability of occurrence 143\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling and conditioning impact 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefining the impact equation 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefining the distributions of variables involved 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentifying drivers 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantifying a single scenario 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn example – “fat fingers” scenario 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling the exposure 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling the occurrence 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling the impact 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative simulation 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMerging scenarios 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling the global distribution of losses 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Identifying Risk Control Drivers 161\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLoss control – a qualitative view 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLoss prevention (action on the causes) 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEliminating the exposure 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReducing the probability of occurrence 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLoss reduction (action on the consequences) 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePre-event or passive reduction 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePost-event or active reduction 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn introduction to cindynics 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBasic concepts 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDysfunctions 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGeneral principles and axioms 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePerspectives 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative example 1 – pandemic influenza 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe influenza pandemic risk model 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExposure 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOccurrence 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpact 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Bayesian network 180\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk control 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePre-exposition treatment (vaccination) 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePost-exposition treatment (antiviral drug) 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImplementation within a Bayesian network 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStrategy comparison 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCumulated point of view 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiscussion 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative example 2 – basel II operational risk 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe individual loss model 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnalysing the potential severe losses 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentifying the loss control actions 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnalysing the cumulated impact of loss control actions 191\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiscussion 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative example 3 – enterprise-wide risk management 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContext and objectives 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk analysis and complex systems 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn alternative definition of risk 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRepresentation using Bayesian networks 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSelection of a time horizon 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentification of objectives 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentification of risks (events) and risk factors (context) 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructuring the network 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentification of relationships (causal links or influences) 200\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantification of the network 200\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExample of global enterprise risk representation 200\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsage of the model for loss control 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk mapping 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImportance factors 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario analysis 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eApplication to the risk management of an industrial plant 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDescription of the system 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssessment of the external risks 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntegration of external risks in the global risk assessment 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsage of the model for risk management 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary – using quantitative models for risk control 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Risk Financing: The Right Cost of Risks 211\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk financing instruments 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRetention techniques 214\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCurrent treatment 214\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReserves 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCaptives (insurance or reinsurance) 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTransfer techniques 219\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContractual transfer (for risk financing – to a noninsurer) 219\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePurchase of insurance cover 219\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHybrid techniques 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePools and closed mutual 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eClaims history-based premiums 222\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChoice of retention levels 222\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinancial reinsurance and finite risks 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProspective aggregate cover 225\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCapital markets products for risk financing 225\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecuritization 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInsurance derivatives 227\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContingent capital arrangements 228\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk financing and risk quantifying 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing quantitative models 231\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExample 1: Satellite launcher 231\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExample 2: Defining a property insurance programme 243\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA tentative general representation of financing methods 252\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 252\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk financing building blocks 254\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsual financing tools revisited 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCombining a risk model and a financing model 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 263\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 267\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eSubject Areas: Finance \u0026amp; accounting [\u003ca title=\"See our other books on Finance \u0026amp; accounting\" href=\"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/search?q=%22Finance%20\u0026amp;%20accounting%20%5BKF%5D%22\"\u003eKF\u003c\/a\u003e]\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003c\/font\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Brand New","offer_id":52255796986136,"sku":"9780470019078","price":52.97,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0730\/2037\/5320\/files\/9780470019078.jpg?v=1781274148","url":"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/products\/risk-quantification-management-diagnosis-and-hedging-hardback-9780470019078","provider":"Freshly Printed Books","version":"1.0","type":"link"}