{"product_id":"risk-assessment-of-power-systems-models-methods-and-applications-hardback-9781118686706","title":"Risk Assessment of Power Systems; Models, Methods, and Applications (Hardback) 9781118686706","description":"\u003cfont face=\"Georgia\"\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"6\"\u003eRisk Assessment of Power Systems\u003c\/font\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\r\n\u003cfont size=\"5\"\u003eModels, Methods, and Applications\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"4\"\u003eWenyuan Li (Author)\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e9781118686706, Wiley\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eHardback, published 15 April 2014\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e560 pages\u003cbr\u003e24.3 x 16.3 x 3.4 cm, 0.871 kg\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp align=\"justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eExtended models, methods, and applications in power system risk assessment\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eRisk Assessment of Power Systems: Models, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition\u003c\/i\u003e fills the gap between risk theory and real-world application. Author Wenyuan Li is a leading authority on power system risk and has more than twenty-five years of experience in risk evaluation. This book offers real-world examples to help readers learn to evaluate power system risk during planning, design, operations, and maintenance activities.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome of the new additions in the \u003ci\u003eSecond Edition\u003c\/i\u003e include:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eNew research and applied achievements in power system risk assessment\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA discussion of correlation models in risk evaluation\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to apply risk assessment to renewable energy sources and smart grids\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eAsset management based on condition monitoring and risk evaluation\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eVoltage instability risk assessment and its application to system planning\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe book includes theoretical methods and actual industrial applications. It offers an extensive discussion of component and system models, applied methods, and practical examples, allowing readers to effectively use the basic concepts to conduct risk assessments for power systems in the real world. With every original chapter updated, two new sections added, and five entirely new chapters included to cover new trends, \u003ci\u003eRisk Assessment of Power Systems\u003c\/i\u003e is an essential reference.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePreface xix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface to the First Edition xxi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Introduction 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1 Risk in Power Systems 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2 Basic Concepts of Power System Risk Assessment 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2.1 System Risk Evaluation 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2.2 Data in Risk Evaluation 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2.3 Unit Interruption Cost 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3 Outline of the Book 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Outage Models of System Components 15\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 Introduction 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 Models of Independent Outages 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.1 Repairable Forced Failure 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.2 Aging Failure 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.3 Nonrepairable Chance Failure 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.4 Planned Outage 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.5 Semiforced Outage 27\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.6 Partial Failure Mode 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.7 Multiple Failure Mode 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3 Models of Dependent Outages 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.1 Common-Cause Outage 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.2 Component-Group Outage 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.3 Station-Originated Outage 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.4 Cascading Outage 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.5 Environment-Dependent Failure 40\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.4 Conclusions 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Parameter Estimation in Outage Models 45\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1 Introduction 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2 Point Estimation on Mean and Variance of Failure Data 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2.1 Sample Mean 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2.2 Sample Variance 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3 Interval Estimation on Mean and Variance of Failure Data 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.1 General Concept of Confidence Interval 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.2 Confidence Interval of Mean 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.3 Confidence Interval of Variance 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4 Estimating Failure Frequency of Individual Components 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4.1 Point Estimation 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4.2 Interval Estimation 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5 Estimating Probability from a Binomial Distribution 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data and its Test 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6.1 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6.2 Test of Experimental Distribution 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7 Estimating Parameters in Aging Failure Models 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7.1 Mean Life and its Standard Deviation in the Normal Model 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7.2 Shape and Scale Parameters in the Weibull Model 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7.3 Example 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.8 Conclusions 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Elements of Risk Evaluation Methods 73\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Introduction 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Methods for Simple Systems 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.1 Probability Convolution 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.2 Series and Parallel Networks 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.3 Minimum Cutsets 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.4 Markov Equations 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.5 Frequency-Duration Approaches 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3 Methods for Complex Systems 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.1 State Enumeration 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.2 Nonsequential Monte Carlo Simulation 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.3 Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation 89\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4 Correlation Models in Risk Evaluation 91\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4.1 Correlation Measures 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4.2 Correlation Matrix Methods 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4.3 Copula Functions 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5 Conclusions 102\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Risk Evaluation Techniques for Power Systems 105\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1 Introduction 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2 Techniques Used in Generation-Demand Systems 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.1 Convolution Technique 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.2 State Sampling Method 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.3 State Duration Sampling Method 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3 Techniques Used in Radial Distribution Systems 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3.1 Analytical Technique 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3.2 State Duration Sampling Method 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4 Techniques Used in Substation Configurations 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4.1 Failure Modes and Modeling 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4.2 Connectivity Identification 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4.3 Stratified State Enumeration Method 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4.4 State Duration Sampling Method 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5 Techniques Used in Composite Generation and Transmission Systems 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.1 Basic Procedure 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.2 Component Failure Models 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.3 Load Curve Models 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.4 Contingency Analysis 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.5 Optimization Models for Load Curtailments 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.6 State Enumeration Method 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.7 State Sampling Method 139\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.6 Conclusions 141\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Development Planning 143\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Introduction 143\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 Concept of Probabilistic Planning 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2.1 Basic Procedure 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2.2 Cost Analysis 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2.3 Present Value 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3 Risk Evaluation Approach 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.1 Risk Evaluation Procedure 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.2 Risk Cost Model 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4 Example 1: Selecting the Lowest-Cost Planning Alternative 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4.1 System Description 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4.2 Planning Alternatives 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4.3 Risk Evaluation 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4.4 Overall Economic Analysis 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4.5 Summary 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5 Example 2: Applying Different Planning Criteria 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.1 System and Planning Alternatives 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.2 Study Conditions and Data 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.3 Risk and Risk Cost Evaluation 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.4 Overall Economic Analysis 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.5 Summary 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.6 Conclusions 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Operation Planning 169\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Introduction 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Concept of Risk Evaluation in Operation Planning 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3 Risk Evaluation Method 173\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4 Example 1: Determining the Lowest-Risk Operation Mode 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.1 System and Study Conditions 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.2 Assessing Impacts of Load Transfer 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.3 Comparing Different Reconfigurations 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.4 Selecting Operation Mode under the \u003ci\u003eN\u003c\/i\u003e−2 Condition 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.5 Summary 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5 Example 2: A Simple Case by Hand Calculation 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5.1 Basic Concept 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5.2 Case Description 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5.3 Study Conditions and Data 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5.4 Risk Evaluation 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5.5 Summary 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6 Conclusions 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 Application of Risk Evaluation to Generation Source Planning 191\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 Introduction 191\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 Procedure of Reliability Planning 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 Simulation of Generation and Risk Costs 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.1 Simulation Approach 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.2 Minimization Cost Model 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.3 Expected Generation and Risk Costs 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4 Example 1: Selecting Location and Size of Cogenerators 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4.1 Basic Concept 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4.2 System and Cogeneration Candidates 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4.3 Risk Sensitivity Analysis 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4.4 Maximum Benefit Analysis 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4.5 Summary 205\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5 Example 2: Making a Decision to Retire a Local Generation Plant 205\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5.1 Case Description 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5.2 Risk Evaluation 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5.3 Total Cost Analysis 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5.4 Summary 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6 Conclusions 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Application of Risk Evaluation to Selecting Substation Configurations 211\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 Introduction 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 Load Curtailment Model 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Risk Evaluation Approach 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.1 Component Failure Models 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.2 Procedure of Risk Evaluation 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.3 Economic Analysis Method 216\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Example 1: Selecting Substation Configuration 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.1 Two Substation Configurations 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.2 Risk Evaluation 218\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.3 Economic Analysis 222\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.4 Summary 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5 Example 2: Evaluating Effects of Substation Configuration Changes 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.1 Simplified Model for Evaluating Substation Configurations 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.2 Problem Description 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.3 Risk Evaluation 227\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.4 Summary 228\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6 Example 3: Selecting Transmission Line Arrangement Associated with Substations 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6.1 Description of Two Options 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6.2 Risk Evaluation and Economic Analysis 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6.3 Summary 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.7 Conclusions 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Application of Risk Evaluation to Renewable Energy Systems 235 \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Introduction 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 Risk Evaluation of Wind Turbine Power Converter System (WTPCS) 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2.1 Basic Concepts 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2.2 Power Losses and Temperatures of WTPCS Components 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2.3 Risk Evaluation of WTPCS 240\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2.4 Case Study 245\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2.5 Summary 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 Risk Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Systems 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.1 Two Basic Structures of Photovoltaic Power Systems 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.2 Risk Parameters of Photovoltaic Inverters 254\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.3 Risk Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power System 258\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.4 Case Study 263\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.5 Summary 270\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 Conclusions 272\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Application of Risk Evaluation to Composite Systems with Renewable Sources 275\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 Introduction 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 Risk Assessment of a Composite System with Wind Farms and Solar Power Stations 276\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.1 Probability Models of Renewable Sources and Bus Load Curves 276\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.2 Multiple Correlations among Renewable Sources and Bus\/Regional Loads 279\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.3 Risk Assessment Considering Multiple Correlations 282\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.4 Case Study 283\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.5 Summary 295\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 Determination of Transfer Capability Required by Wind Generation 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.1 System, Conditions, and Method 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.2 Wind Generation Model 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.3 Equivalence of Wind Power in Generation Systems 299\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.4 Transfer Capability Required by Wind Generation 303\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.5 Summary 309\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4 Conclusions 310\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12 Risk Evaluation of Wide Area Measurement and Control System 313\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.1 Introduction 313\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2 Hierarchical Structure and Failure Analysis of WAMCS 314\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2.1 Hierarchical Structure of WAMCS 314\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2.2 Failure Analysis Technique for WAMCS 315\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3 Risk Evaluation of Phasor Measurement Units 317\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3.1 Markov State Models of PMU Modules 317\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3.2 Equivalent Two-State Model of PMU 324\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4 Risk Evaluation of Regional Communication Networks in WAMCS 325\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.1 Classification of Regional Communication Networks 325\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.2 Survival Mechanisms of Regional Networks 328\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.3 Risk Evaluation in Two Survival Mechanisms 329\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.4 Equivalent Two-State Model of a Regional Communication Network 334\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.5 Risk Evaluation of Backbone Network in WAMCS 335\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.5.1 Equivalent Risk Model of Backbone Communication Network 336\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.5.2 Risk Evaluation of Optic Fiber System 337\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6 Numerical Results 343\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6.1 Risk Indices of PMU 343\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6.2 Risk Indices of Regional Communication Networks 345\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6.3 Risk Indices of the Backbone Communication Network 347\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6.4 Risk Indices of Overall WAMCS 348\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.7 Conclusions 349\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e13 Reliability-Centered Maintenance 351\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.1 Introduction 351\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2 Basic Tasks in RCM 352\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2.1 Comparison between Maintenance Alternatives 352\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2.2 Lowest-Risk Maintenance Scheduling 353\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2.3 Predictive Maintenance versus Corrective Maintenance 353\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2.4 Ranking Importance of Components 354\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3 Example 1: Transmission Maintenance Scheduling 355\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3.1 Procedure of Transmission Maintenance Planning 355\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3.2 Description of the System and Maintenance Outage 357\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3.3 The Lowest-Risk Schedule of the Cable Replacement 358\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3.4 Summary 359\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4 Example 2: Workforce Planning in Maintenance 360\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4.1 Problem Description 360\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4.2 Procedure 361\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4.3 Case Study and Results 362\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4.4 Summary 363\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5 Example 3: A Simple Case Performed by Hand Calculations 363\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5.1 Case Description 363\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5.2 Study Conditions and Data 365\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5.3 EENS Evaluation 365\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5.4 Summary 367\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.6 Conclusions 367\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e14 Probabilistic Spare-Equipment Analysis 369\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.1 Introduction 369\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.2 Spare-Equipment Analysis Based on Reliability Criteria 370\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.2.1 Unavailability of Components 370\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.2.2 Group Reliability and Spare-Equipment Analysis 372\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3 Spare-Equipment Analysis Using the Probabilistic Cost Method 373\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.1 Failure Cost Model 373\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.2 Unit Failure Cost Estimation 374\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.3 Annual Investment Cost Model 375\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.4 Present Value Approach 375\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.5 Procedure of Spare-Equipment Analysis 376\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4 Example 1: Determining Number and Timing of Spare Transformers 376\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.1 Transformer Group and Data 376\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.2 Spare-Transformer Analysis Based on Group Failure Probability 377\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.3 Spare-Transformer Plans Based on the Probabilistic Cost Model 378\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.4 Summary 381\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5 Example 2: Determining Redundancy Level of 500 kV Reactors 381\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.1 Problem Description 381\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.2 Study Conditions and Data 383\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.3 Redundancy Analysis 385\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.4 Summary 387\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.6 Conclusions 387\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e15 Asset Management Based on Condition Monitoring and Risk Evaluation 389\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.1 Introduction 389\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2 Maintenance Strategy of Overhead Lines 390\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.1 Risk Evaluation Using Condition Monitoring Data 391\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.2 Overhead Line Maintenance Strategy 397\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.3 Case Study 399\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.4 Summary 401\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3 Replacement Strategy for Aged Transformers 402\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.1 Transformer Aging Failure Unavailability Using Condition Monitoring Data 403\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.2 Transformer Replacement Strategy 407\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.3 Case Study 410\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.4 Summary 413\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.4 Conclusions 414\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e16 Reliability-Based Transmission-Service Pricing 417\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.1 Introduction 417\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2 Basic Concept 418\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.1 Incremental Reliability Value 419\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.2 Impacts of Customers on System Reliability 420\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.3 Reliability Component in Price Design 421\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3 Calculation Methods 422\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.1 Unit Incremental Reliability Value 422\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.2 Generation Credit for Reliability Improvement 423\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.3 Load Charge for Reliability Degradation 423\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.4 Load Charge Rate Due to Generation Credit 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.4 Rate Design 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.4.1 Charge Rate for Wheeling Customers 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.4.2 Charge Rate for Native Customers 425\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.4.3 Credit to Generation Customers 425\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5 Application Example 425\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5.1 Calculation of the UIRV 427\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5.2 Calculation of the GCRI 427\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5.3 Calculation of the LCRD 427\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5.4 Calculation of the LCRGC 428\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5.5 Calculations of Charge Rates 428\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.6 Conclusions 430\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e17 Voltage Instability Risk Assessment and its Application to System Planning 431\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.1 Introduction 431\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2 Method of Assessing Voltage Instability Risk 432\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.1 Maximum Loadability Model for System States 432\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.2 Models for Identifying Weak Branches and Buses 436\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.3 Determination of Contingency System States 443\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.4 Procedure of Calculating Voltage Instability Risk Indices 444\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.3 Tracing and Locating Voltage Instability Risk for Planning Alternatives 447\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4 Case Studies 448\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4.1 Results of the IEEE 14-Bus System 448\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4.2 Results of the 171-Bus Utility System 453\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.5 Conclusions 456\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e18 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment 459\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.1 Introduction 459\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2 Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation Methods 460\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2.1 Selection of Pre-Fault System States 460\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2.2 Fault Models 461\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2.3 Monte Carlo Simulation of Fault Events 463\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2.4 Transient Stability Simulation 464\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.3 Procedure 464\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.3.1 Procedure for the First Type of Study 465\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.3.2 Procedure for the Second Type of Study 465\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4 Examples 465\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4.1 System Description and Data 465\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4.2 Transfer Limit Calculation in the Columbia River System 470\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4.3 Generation Rejection Requirement in the Peace River System 472\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4.4 Summary 475\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.5 Conclusions 475\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix A Basic Probability Concepts 477\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1 Probability Calculation Rules 477\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1.1 Intersection 477\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1.2 Union 477\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1.3 Full Conditional Probability 478\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.2 Random Variable and its Distribution 478\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3 Important Distributions in Risk Evaluation 479\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.1 Exponential Distribution 479\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.2 Normal Distribution 479\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.3 Log-Normal Distribution 481\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.4 Weibull Distribution 481\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.5 Gamma Distribution 482\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.6 Beta Distribution 483\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.4 Numerical Characteristics 483\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.4.1 Mathematical Expectation 483\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.4.2 Variance and Standard Deviation 484\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.4.3 Covariance and Correlation Coefficients 484\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.5 Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimator 485\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.5.1 Basic Concept 485\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.5.2 Determination of the Bandwidth 486\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix B Elements of Monte Carlo Simulation 489\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.1 General Concept 489\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.2 Random Number Generators 490\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.2.1 Multiplicative Congruent Generator 490\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.2.2 Mixed Congruent Generator 491\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.3 Inverse Transform Method of Generating Random Variates 491\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4 Important Random Variates in Risk Evaluation 492\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.1 Exponential Distribution Random Variate 492\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.2 Normal Distribution Random Variate 493\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.3 Log-Normal Distribution Random Variate 494\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.4 Weibull Distribution Random Variate 494\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.5 Gamma Distribution Random Variate 495\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.6 Beta Distribution Random Variate 495\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix C Power Flow Models 497\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.1 AC Power Flow Models 497\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.1.1 Power Flow Equations 497\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.1.2 Newton–Raphson Method 497\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.1.3 Fast Decoupled Method 498\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.2 DC Power Flow Models 499\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.2.1 Basic Equation 499\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.2.2 Line Flow Equation 500\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix D Optimization Algorithms 503\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.1 Simplex Methods for Linear Programming 503\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.1.1 Primal Simplex Method 503\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.1.2 Dual Simplex Method 505\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.2 Interior Point Method for Nonlinear Programming 506\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.2.1 Optimality and Feasibility Conditions 506\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.2.2 Procedure of the Algorithm 508\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix E Three Probability Distribution Tables 511\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 515\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading 523\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 525\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eSubject Areas: Electronics \u0026amp; communications engineering [\u003ca title=\"See our 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