{"product_id":"managing-project-risk-and-uncertainty-a-constructively-simple-approach-to-decision-making-hardback-9780470847909","title":"Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty; A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making (Hardback) 9780470847909","description":"\u003cfont face=\"Georgia\"\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"6\"\u003eManaging Project Risk and Uncertainty\u003c\/font\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\r\n\u003cfont size=\"5\"\u003eA Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"4\"\u003eChris Chapman (Author), Stephen Ward (Author)\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e9780470847909, Wiley\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eHardback, published 27 August 2002\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e512 pages\u003cbr\u003e23.8 x 15.5 x 3.4 cm, 0.907 kg\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp align=\"justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eBuilding on the thinking of \u003ci\u003eProject Risk Management\u003c\/i\u003e, this book puts forward a practical, new approach to decision making in an uncertain business world. Many variables are accounted for and the authors are innovative in integrating previous decision-making approaches with a more fluid, and therefore realistic, model that can be applied across a wide range of contexts and decisions. Practical yet rigorous, it is ideal for students and professionals alike.\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePreface ix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgements xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Introduction 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManaging Uncertainty, Risk, Threat and Opportunity 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Scope for Uncertainty in Managerial Decision Processes 2\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTen Tales About Uncertainty Management 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA General Process for Supporting Managerial Decision Making 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConstructively Simple Models 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther Aspects of Constructive Simplicity 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eKeep It Simple Systematically 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Nicola’s tale: sizing inventories and other buffers 29\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 29\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Stockholding Issue 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFocusing the Process 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConstructing a Model 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRefining the Analysis: Considering Safety Stock Policy 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Refinements: Influences on Holding Costs 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterpreting the Results of Analysis Creatively 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlternative Creative Interpretations 44\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther Stock Control Contexts 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther Buffer Contexts 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusions 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Martha’s tale: setting bids and other pricing decisions 55\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Bidding Opportunity for Astro 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Preliminary Proposal Document 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Proposed Multiple-pass Process 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFirst-pass Uncertainty Management: Identifying Non-starters 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecond-pass Uncertainty Management: Identifying No-hopers 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThird-pass Initiation 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThird-pass Cost Uncertainty Analysis 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThird-pass Probability of Winning Analysis 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThird-pass Uncertainty Synthesis 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThird-pass Bid Setting Discussion 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManaging Requisite Change 97\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome General Implications 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther Bidding Contexts 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Eddy’s tale: estimating measures of uncertain performance 117\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome Basic Concepts 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEddy Starts Work 126\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEddy’s First-pass Minimalist Approach 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFirst-pass Interpretation and Anticipation of Further Passes 141\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnticipation of Corporate Learning 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScope for Automation 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEliminating the Use of Probability Impact Matrices 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManaging and Shaping Expectations 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRobustness of the Minimalist Approach 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe User Perspective: Conditional Estimates and Cube Factors 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Ian’s tale: aligning buyer and supplier motivation 163\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Development Project 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Consultant Is Hired 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Framework for Project Risk Management 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Critical Assessment of Current Common Practice 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFormulating An Incentive Contract 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Way Forward 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBiars Contracts 191\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Roger’s tale: assigning ownership of project uncertainty 199\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Corporate Understanding of Uncertainty Ownership 200\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRoger’s Defining Moment 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Simple Analysis of Anchor Risk 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDistributing the Ownership of Uncertainty 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRoger’s Simple Analysis of Distributed Uncertainty Ownership 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Internal Trigger Contract to Manage Good Luck 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDesigning An External Trigger Contract 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Revised Corporate Understanding of Uncertainty Ownership 231\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 236\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Sarah’s tale: facilitating the precautionary principle 239\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rail Passenger Safety Trust 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Conventional Analysis of Railway Buffer Events 243\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Simple Scenario Analysis of Buffer Events 246\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Efficiency for a Railway System 254\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk-reward Balance: How Safe Is Safe Enough? 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAmbiguities in ‘the Relevant Public’ 260\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAmbiguities in Equivalent Fatalities 262\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegulation Via Mandatory Insurance 264\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 266\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 Norman’s tale: discounting future performance measures 275\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNorman’s Situation 279\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA First-pass Model and Parametric Analysis 280\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProbabilistic Analysis to Support the First Pass 288\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Second-pass Probabilistic Analysis 289\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Third-pass Probabilistic Analysis 291\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Sudden Flash of Hindsight 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIs a Real Options Approach Really Useful? 297\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 302\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Tess’s tale: making decision analysis practical 305\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 305\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Machine Selection Problem 306\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Basic Model and First-pass Analysis 307\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExploring the Value of More Information 311\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDifficulties with the Model 314\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Project Portfolio Perspective 316\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbandoning a Common Set of Discrete Events with Certain Pay-offs 319\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Explicit Threat and Opportunity Management Structure 324\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Explicit Multiple-attribute Structure 327\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExplicit Analysis of Multiple-attribute Trade-offs 333\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 339\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Sam’s tale: concepts and issues in portfolio management 345\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 345\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSam’s Assignment 347\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Basic Markowitz Mean–variance Model 348\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExtending the Basic Markowitz Model 355\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSam’s Basic System 358\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Considerations with a Simplified Portfolio 373\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRobustness of Sam’s System 384\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 389\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Conrad’s tale: formulating strategy 393\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 393\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConrad’s Situation 394\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePlanning Horizons 396\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLong-term Strategy Formulation 399\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMedium-term Strategy Formulation and Integration Upwards 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eShort-term Strategy Formulation and Integration Upwards 434\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntegrating Social, Environmental, Ethical and Political Issues 440\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Crisis 445\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 447\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12 From concepts to culture 451\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimple Efficiency 451\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBasic Concepts 453\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eKey Modelling Concepts 454\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eKey Process Concepts 456\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUncertainty Management Systems 459\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAddressing Cultural Barriers to Uncertainty Management 460\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCulture Change Management 472\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 473\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 475\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 489\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eSubject Areas: Business \u0026amp; management [\u003ca title=\"See our other books on Business \u0026amp; management\" href=\"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/search?q=%22Business%20\u0026amp;%20management%20%5BKJ%5D%22\"\u003eKJ\u003c\/a\u003e]\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003c\/font\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Brand 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