{"product_id":"leading-economic-indicators-new-approaches-and-forecasting-records-paperback-9780521438582","title":"Leading Economic Indicators; New Approaches and Forecasting Records (Paperback) 9780521438582","description":"\u003cfont face=\"Georgia\"\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"6\"\u003eLeading Economic Indicators\u003c\/font\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\r\n\u003cfont size=\"5\"\u003eNew Approaches and Forecasting Records\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eTwenty-two articles by international experts on business cycles and economic indicators.\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"4\"\u003eKajal Lahiri (Edited by), Geoffrey H. Moore (Edited by)\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e9780521438582, Cambridge University Press\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003ePaperback, published 30 October 1992\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e484 pages, 71 b\/w illus.  75 tables\u003cbr\u003e22.9 x 15.2 x 2.7 cm, 0.71 kg\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp align=\"justify\"\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e\"...an excellent review of the current state of research into leading indicators.  While the evidence presented concerns the US economy (with the exception of a couple of papers on Australia), the message that surveys and patterns in data can help in forecasting, has a much wider application and needs to be taken seriously by economic modellers.\"   Kenneth Holden, International Journal of Forecasting\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp align=\"justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eDeveloped fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003ePreface\u003cbr\u003e 1. Editors' introduction\u003cbr\u003e Part I. New Concepts and Methods: 2. Toward a theory of leading indicators Frank de Leeuw\u003cbr\u003e 3. A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators Salih N. Neftci\u003cbr\u003e 4. A probability model of the coincident economic indicators James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson\u003cbr\u003e 5. An international application of Neftci's probability approach for signalling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators Michael P. Niemira\u003cbr\u003e 6. On predicting the stage of the business cycle Roy H. Webb\u003cbr\u003e 7. Bayesian methods for forecasting turning points in economic time series: sensitivity of forecasts to asymmetry of loss structures Arnold Zellner and Chansik Hong\u003cbr\u003e 8. New developments in leading economic indicators Geoffrey H. Moore\u003cbr\u003e Part II. Forecasting Records and Methods of Evaluation: 9. Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions Stephen K. McNees\u003cbr\u003e 10. Turning point predictions, errors, and forecasting procedures Hermon O. Stekler\u003cbr\u003e 11. Forecasting peaks and troughs in the business cycle: on the choice and use of appropriate leading indicator series Stephen J. Silver\u003cbr\u003e 12. Using a consensus of leading economic indicators to find right ball park for real GNP forecasts Edward F. Renshaw\u003cbr\u003e 13. Some Australian experience with leading economic indicators Allan P. Layton\u003cbr\u003e 14. Turning point prediction with the composite leading index: an exante analysis Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch\u003cbr\u003e 15. Forecasting recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore\u003cbr\u003e 16. Leading indicators of inflation Howard L. Roth\u003cbr\u003e Part III. New Economic Indicators: 17. Commodity prices as a leading indicator of inflation James M. Boughton and William H. Branson\u003cbr\u003e 18. A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates Susmita Dasgupta and Kajal Lahiri\u003cbr\u003e 19. Using composite leading indicators of consumption to forecast sales and to signal turning points in stock market Michael P. Niemira\u003cbr\u003e 20. Economic indicators for Australia's service sector Ernst A. Boehm\u003cbr\u003e 21. Purchasing management survey data: their value as leading indicator Philip A. Klein and Geoffrey H. Moore\u003cbr\u003e 22. An agenda for inventories input to leading composite index Feliks Tamm\u003cbr\u003e Index.\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eSubject Areas: Macroeconomics [\u003ca title=\"See our other books on Macroeconomics\" href=\"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/search?q=%22Macroeconomics%20%5BKCB%5D%22\"\u003eKCB\u003c\/a\u003e]\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003c\/font\u003e","brand":"Cambridge University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":46004226982168,"sku":"9780521438582","price":51.99,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0730\/2037\/5320\/products\/9780521438582i_c0acf92a-0b0c-426b-9980-3b4293a31294.jpg?v=1691381874","url":"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/products\/leading-economic-indicators-new-approaches-and-forecasting-records-paperback-9780521438582","provider":"Freshly Printed Books","version":"1.0","type":"link"}