{"product_id":"exchange-rates-in-south-americas-emerging-markets-paperback-9781108810135","title":"Exchange Rates in South America's Emerging Markets (Paperback \/ softback) 9781108810135","description":"\u003cfont face=\"Georgia\"\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"6\"\u003eExchange Rates in South America's Emerging Markets\u003c\/font\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eCompares emerging markets' exchange rate estimation by structural and Bayesian models, evaluated against the benchmark random-walk model.\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"4\"\u003eLuis Molinas Sosa (Author), Caio Vigo Pereira (Author)\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e9781108810135, Cambridge University Press\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003ePaperback \/ softback, published 16 July 2020\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e75 pages\u003cbr\u003e15 x 23 x 0.5 cm, 0.12 kg\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp align=\"justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eSince Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e1. Introduction\u003cbr\u003e 2. Historical background\u003cbr\u003e 3. Literature review\u003cbr\u003e 4. Methodology\u003cbr\u003e 5. Data\u003cbr\u003e 6. Results\u003cbr\u003e 7. Conclusion\u003cbr\u003e 8. Graphs\u003cbr\u003e References.\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eSubject Areas: Economics [\u003ca title=\"See our other books on Economics\" href=\"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/search?q=%22Economics%20%5BKC%5D%22\"\u003eKC\u003c\/a\u003e]\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003c\/font\u003e","brand":"Cambridge University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":46005227946264,"sku":"9781108810135","price":17.39,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0730\/2037\/5320\/products\/9781108810135i.jpg?v=1696719632","url":"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/products\/exchange-rates-in-south-americas-emerging-markets-paperback-9781108810135","provider":"Freshly Printed Books","version":"1.0","type":"link"}