{"product_id":"economic-and-business-forecasting-analyzing-and-interpreting-econometric-results-hardback-9781118497098","title":"Economic and Business Forecasting; Analyzing and Interpreting Econometric Results (Hardback) 9781118497098","description":"\u003cfont face=\"Georgia\"\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"6\"\u003eEconomic and Business Forecasting\u003c\/font\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\r\n\u003cfont size=\"5\"\u003eAnalyzing and Interpreting Econometric Results\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"4\"\u003eJohn E. Silvia (Author), Azhar Iqbal (Author), Kaylyn Swankoski (Author), Sarah Watt (Author), Sam Bullard (Author)\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e9781118497098, Wiley\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eHardback, published 9 May 2014\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e400 pages\u003cbr\u003e26.2 x 19 x 3.6 cm, 0.88 kg\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp align=\"justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eDiscover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting\u003c\/b\u003e \u003cp\u003eEquipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, \u003ci\u003eEconomic and Business Forecasting\u003c\/i\u003e offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003ePresents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHighlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eExplores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIdentifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003ePresenting the \"ten commandments\" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePreface xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 Creating Harmony Out of Noisy Data 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEffective Decision Making: Characterize the Data 2\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 First, Understand the Data 27\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGrowth: How Is the Economy Doing Overall? 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePersonal Consumption 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGross Private Domestic Investment 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGovernment Purchases 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNet Exports of Goods and Services 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReal Final Sales and Gross Domestic Purchases 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Labor Market: Always a Core Issue 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstablishment Survey 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eData Revision: A Special Consideration 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Household Survey 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarrying the Labor Market Indicators Together 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eJobless Claims 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInflation 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConsumer Price Index: A Society’s Inflation Benchmark 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProducer Price Index 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePersonal Consumption Expenditure Deflator: The Inflation Benchmark for Monetary Policy 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterest Rates: Price of Credit 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Dollar and Exchange Rates: The United States in a Global Economy 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorporate Profits 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 Financial Ratios 63\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProfitability Ratios 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 Characterizing a Time Series 75\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Characterize a Time Series? 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow to Characterize a Time Series 77\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eApplication: Judging Economic Volatility 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 Characterizing a Relationship between Time Series 111\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImportant Test Statistics in Identifying Statistically Significant Relationships 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimple Econometric Techniques to Determine a Statistical Relationship 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdvanced Econometric Techniques to Determine a Statistical Relationship 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 126\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdditional Reading 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 Characterizing a Time Series Using SAS Software 129\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTips for SAS Users 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe DATA Step 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe PROC Step 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 Testing for a Unit Root and Structural Break Using SAS Software 157\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTesting a Unit Root in a Time Series: A Case Study of the U.S. CPI 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentifying a Structural Change in a Time Series 162\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Application of the HP Filter 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eApplication: Benchmarking the Housing Bust, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 Characterizing a Relationship Using SAS 179\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUseful Tips for an Applied Time Series Analysis 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConverting a Dataset from One Frequency to Another 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eApplication: Did the Great Recession Alter Credit Benchmarks? 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 221\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 The 10 Commandments of Applied Time Series Forecasting for Business and Economics 223\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommandment 1: Know What You Are Forecasting 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommandment 2: Understand the Purpose of Forecasting 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommandment 3: Acknowledge the Cost of the Forecast Error 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommandment 4: Rationalize the Forecast Horizon 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommandment 5: Understand the Choice of Variables 231\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommandment 6: Rationalize the Forecasting Model Used 232\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommandment 7: Know How to Present the Results 234\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommandment 8: Know How to Decipher the Forecast Results 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommandment 9: Understand the Importance of Recursive Methods 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommandment 10: Understand Forecasting Models Evolve over Time 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 240\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10 A Single-Equation Approach to Model-Based Forecasting 241\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Unconditional (Atheoretical) Approach 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Conditional (Theoretical) Approach 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRecession Forecast Using a Probit Model 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11 A Multiple-Equations Approach to Model-Based Forecasting 263\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Importance of the Real-Time Short-Term Forecasting 265\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Individual Forecast versus Consensus Forecast: Is There an Advantage? 266\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Econometrics of Real-Time Short-Term Forecasting: The BVAR Approach 268\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting in Real Time: Issues Related to the Data and the Model Selection 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCase Study: WFC versus Bloomberg 280\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 288\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 11A: List of Variables 289\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 12 A Multiple-Equations Approach to Long-Term Forecasting 291\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Unconditional Long-Term Forecasting: The BVAR Model 293\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe BVAR Model with Housing Starts 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Model without Oil Price Shock 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Model with Oil Price Shock 304\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 306\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 13 The Risks of Model-Based Forecasting: Modeling, Assessing, and Remodeling 307\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisks to Short-Term Forecasting: There Is No Magic Bullet 308\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisks of Long-Term Forecasting: Black Swan versus a Group of Black Swans 310\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel-Based Forecasting and the Great Recession\/Financial Crisis: Worst-Case Scenario versus Panic 314\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 315\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 14 Putting the Analysis to Work in the Twenty-First-Century Economy 317\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBenchmarking Economic Growth 318\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndustrial Production: Another Case of Stationary Behavior 322\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmployment: Jobs in the Twenty-First Century 324\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInflation 331\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterest Rates 337\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImbalances between Bond Yields and Equity Earnings 338\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Note of Caution on Patterns of Interest Rates 345\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBusiness Credit: Patterns Reminiscent of Cyclical Recovery 347\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProfits 348\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinancial Market Volatility: Assessing Risk 349\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDollar 351\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEconomic Policy: Impact of Fiscal Policy and the Evolution of the U.S. Economy 353\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Long-Term Deficit Bias and Its Economic Implications 358\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 362\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix: Useful References for SAS Users 365\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Authors 367\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 369\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eSubject Areas: Economics [\u003ca title=\"See our other books on Economics\" href=\"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/search?q=%22Economics%20%5BKC%5D%22\"\u003eKC\u003c\/a\u003e]\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003c\/font\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Brand New","offer_id":52417778712856,"sku":"9781118497098","price":39.39,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0730\/2037\/5320\/files\/9781118497098.jpg?v=1784508628","url":"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/products\/economic-and-business-forecasting-analyzing-and-interpreting-econometric-results-hardback-9781118497098","provider":"Freshly Printed Books","version":"1.0","type":"link"}