{"product_id":"country-risk-assessment-a-guide-to-global-investment-strategy-hardback-9780470845004","title":"Country Risk Assessment; A Guide to Global Investment Strategy (Hardback) 9780470845004","description":"\u003cfont face=\"Georgia\"\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"6\"\u003eCountry Risk Assessment\u003c\/font\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\r\n\u003cfont size=\"5\"\u003eA Guide to Global Investment Strategy\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"4\"\u003eMichel Henry Bouchet (Author), Ephraim Clark (Author), Bertrand Groslambert (Author)\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e9780470845004, Wiley\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eHardback, published 23 May 2003\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e288 pages\u003cbr\u003e25 x 17.6 x 2.2 cm, 0.68 kg\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp align=\"justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eOne of the few books on the subject, Country Risk Assessment combines the theoretical and practical tools for managing international country risk exposure.  \u003cp\u003e- Offers a comprehensive discussion of the specific mechanisms that apply to country risk assessment.\u003cbr\u003e - Discusses various techniques associated with global investment strategy.\u003cbr\u003e - Presents and analyses the various sources of country risk.\u003cbr\u003e - Provides an in depth coverage of information sources and country risk service providers.\u003cbr\u003e - Gives techniques for forecasting country financial crises.\u003cbr\u003e - Includes practical examples and case studies.\u003cbr\u003e - Provides a comprehensive review of all existing methods including the techniques on the cutting-edge Market Based Approaches such as KMV, CreditMetrics, CountryMetrics and CreditRisk+.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePreface ix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForeword by \u003ci\u003eCampbell R. Harvey \u003c\/i\u003exiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Introduction 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1 An historical perspective 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2 Outline of the book 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 An Overview of Country Risk 9\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 A Review of the literature 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.1 The terminologies 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.2 Definitions of country risk 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.3 Sources of risk 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.4 Types of investment 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.5 The historical context 14\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.6 Different methodologies 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 Classification and examples of country risk 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.1 Natural disasters 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.2 Socio-political risk 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.3 Country-specific economic risk 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 25\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 The Economic and Financial Foundations of Country Risk Assessment 31\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1 Devaluation 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.1 Relative price effects: The elasticities approach 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.2 Income effects: The absorption approach 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.3 Stock adjustments: The monetary approach 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.4 Stock adjustments: The portfolio balance approach 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.5 Country risk: Ratio analysis 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Country Risk Assessment Methodologies: The Qualitative, Structural Approach to Country Risk 49\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Introduction 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Analysis of welfare and social indicators of the development process 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3 Analysis of the macroeconomic structures of growth 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4 External indebtedness, liquidity and solvency analysis 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5 The savings–investment gap and domestic financial intermediation 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.6 Growth, crisis and governance 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.7 The “qualitative” aggregate approach to political risk 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.8 Conclusion 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Assessment Methodologies: Ratings 79\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1 Global country risk ratings 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1.1 Specialized ranking firms 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1.2 Export credit agencies 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1.3 Summary of global country risk ranking methods 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2 Country credit ratings 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.1 Credit rating agencies 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.2 Fitch 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.3 Moody’s 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.4 Standard \u0026amp; Poor’s 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.5 Country rankings published in magazines 102\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.6 Summary of country credit rating methods 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3 Conclusion 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Econometric and Mathematical Methods 115\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Discriminant analysis 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 Logit and probit models 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3 Regression analysis and model building 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4 Monte Carlo simulations 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5 Value at risk (VaR) 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.1 VaR for a single-asset portfolio 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.2 VaR for a two-asset portfolio 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.3 Other methods for Estimating VaR 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.6 Principal components analysis 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.7 Non-linearities and non-parametric estimation 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.8 Artificial neural networks 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.9 Multicriteria 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Risk Models 133\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Credit risk 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.1 Probabilities of default using historical data 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.2 Probabilities of default using interest rate spreads 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.3 Probabilities of default using firm value 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.4 Countrymetrics 137\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.5 Loss given default 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.6 Credit value at risk 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.7 Credit VaR, default correlation and contagion 141\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Investment risk 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.1 Adjusting the expected cash flows 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.2 Adjusting the discount rate 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.3 The Macro CAPM 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.4 Measuring political risk as an insurance premium 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 International Portfolio Investment Analysis 149\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 Modern financial theory 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 International portfolio investment and country risk management 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2.1 The international portfolio investment panorama 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2.2 Impact of country risk on international portfolio investment 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2.3 International diversification 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2.4 International Capital Asset Pricing Model 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 The Limits of the ICAPM 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.1 The normal distribution 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.2 Portfolio diversification 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.3 The CAPM 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.4 The Bank of America approach 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.5 The Goldman Sachs approach 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.6 The JP Morgan approach 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4 Conclusion 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries: An Historical Perspective 171\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 Introduction 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 Historical perspective 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.1 Economic growth-cum-debt process 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.2 Bonds versus loans 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.3 The rising importance of commercial bank lending in the post-WWII era 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.4 The debt crisis and the market-driven menu approach 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Solving the debt crisis 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.1 Phase I – Buying time with rescheduling 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.2 Phase II – The new money approach 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.3 Phase III – The official concerted approach to debt restructuring 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Debt reduction instruments 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5 The way forward in the early 2000s: Back to the 1890s? 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.1 The return of private capital flows 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.2 The return of bondholders 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.3 The rise in non-debt-creating flows 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.4 The emergence of structured financing 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6 Conclusion 191\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix: The Brady Plan at work in EMCs 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Country Risk and Risk Mitigation Instruments 197\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Introduction 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 The role of national export credit agencies 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 The role of official multilateral risk guarantee institutions 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.1 The World Bank’s co-financing program 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.2 The role of the International Finance Corporation 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.3 The role of MIGA (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency) 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 The risk mitigation role of public and private risk guarantee institutions 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.5 The role of private providers of specialist insurance for country risk 205\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6 The market-based “menu” approach 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.1 The rise of the London Club debt secondary market of emerging market loans 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.2 Price developments 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.3 Technical supply and demand factors affecting debt prices 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.4 Debt conversion transactions 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.5 Mechanics of debt conversion 213\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.6 Range of debt conversion transactions 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.7 Official bilateral debt conversion 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.8 Debt conversion: A positive sum game? 218\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Country Risk Assessment: A Matter of Information and Intelligence Gathering 221\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 Introduction 221\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 Solvency and liquidity risk: The supply of debt-related information 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.1 Official sources of country risk data and information 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.2 Private sources of country risk data and information 234\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 FDI-related country risk assessment 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.1 The role of specialized country risk assessment companies 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.2 National public and private information sources 240\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.3 Think-tanks and risk analysis companies 241\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4 Conclusion 243\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix: External debt, official information sources 244\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 245\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlossary 247\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 265\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eSubject Areas: Finance \u0026amp; accounting [\u003ca title=\"See our other books on Finance \u0026amp; accounting\" 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