{"product_id":"behavioral-decision-theory-a-new-approach-hardback-9780521443685","title":"Behavioral Decision Theory; A New Approach (Hardback) 9780521443685","description":"\u003cfont face=\"Georgia\"\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"6\"\u003eBehavioral Decision Theory\u003c\/font\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\r\n\u003cfont size=\"5\"\u003eA New Approach\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThe book describes the errors that people commonly make in dealing with probabilities.\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"4\"\u003eE. C. Poulton (Author)\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e9780521443685, Cambridge University Press\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eHardback, published 30 September 1994\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e336 pages, 36 b\/w illus.  46 tables\u003cbr\u003e23.7 x 16 x 2.1 cm, 0.64 kg\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003cp align=\"justify\"\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e\"The book is well organized, with separate chapters devoted to each of the major biases....The author has incorporated several reader-friendly devices, such as chapter summaries, as well as sections in all the major chapters on practical examples of the bias described in the chapter and how to avoid it.  The helpfulness of these sections varies greatly: Poulton does an excellent job of depicting the dangers that availability can lead to in clinical diagnosis....Poulton emphasises the limitations of behavioral decision research....Because of Poulton's methodological bent, he dissects key experiments- especially Kahneman and Tversky's seminal research-in more detail than do other introductory texts.\"    Applied Cognitive Psychology\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp align=\"justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eThis book discusses the well known fallacies of behavioural decision theory. It shows that while an investigator is studying a well-known fallacy, he or she may introduce, without realizing it, one of the simple biases that are found in quantifying judgements. The work covers such fallacies as the apparent overconfidence that people show when they judge the probability of correctness of their answers to two-choice general knowledge questions using a one-sided rating scale; the apparent overconfidence in setting uncertainty bounds on unknown quantities when using the fractile method; the interactions between hindsight and memory; the belief that small samples are as reliable and as representative as large samples;; the regression fallacy in prediction; the availability and simulation fallacies; the anchoring and adjustment biases; and bias by frames. The aim of this book is to help readers to learn about the fallacies and thus to avoid them. As such, it will be useful reading for students and researchers in probability theory, statistics and psychology.\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003e1. Outline of heuristics and biases\u003cbr\u003e 2. Practical techniques\u003cbr\u003e 3. Apparent overconfidence\u003cbr\u003e 4. Hindsight bias\u003cbr\u003e 5. Small sample fallacy\u003cbr\u003e 6. Conjunction fallacy\u003cbr\u003e 7. Regression fallacy\u003cbr\u003e 8. Base rate fallacy\u003cbr\u003e 9. Availability and simulation fallacies\u003cbr\u003e 10. Anchoring and adjustment bias\u003cbr\u003e 11. Expected utility fallacy\u003cbr\u003e 12. Bias by frames\u003cbr\u003e 13. Simple biases accompanying complex biases\u003cbr\u003e 14. Problem questions\u003cbr\u003e 15. Training\u003cbr\u003e 16. Uncertainties.\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cfont size=\"3\"\u003eSubject Areas: Probability \u0026amp; statistics [\u003ca title=\"See our other books on Probability \u0026amp; statistics\" href=\"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/search?q=%22Probability%20\u0026amp;%20statistics%20%5BPBT%5D%22\"\u003ePBT\u003c\/a\u003e], Psychological theory \u0026amp; schools of thought [\u003ca title=\"See our other books on Psychological theory \u0026amp; schools of thought\" href=\"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/search?q=%22Psychological%20theory%20\u0026amp;%20schools%20of%20thought%20%5BJMA%5D%22\"\u003eJMA\u003c\/a\u003e]\u003c\/font\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\r\n\u003c\/font\u003e","brand":"Cambridge University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":46007435821336,"sku":"9780521443685","price":100.99,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0730\/2037\/5320\/products\/9780521443685i_42022d20-9889-423b-9c2a-a6abd146035d.jpg?v=1691381958","url":"https:\/\/freshlyprintedbooks.co.uk\/products\/behavioral-decision-theory-a-new-approach-hardback-9780521443685","provider":"Freshly Printed Books","version":"1.0","type":"link"}